光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 10 月 14 日）-20251014

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for urea, soda ash, and glass are all "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices rebounded from a low on Monday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,610 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.56%. Spot prices continued to weaken. Demand is insufficient, but low prices are favorable. The Indian tender results will be released on Wednesday, and the impact on the domestic market needs attention. The futures market may rebound from the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset [2] - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated widely on Monday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,247 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.48%. Spot manufacturers' quotes were mostly stable, and traders' quotes fluctuated. The fundamentals have no bright spots, the futures market sentiment is short - term weak, and external macro and policy factors need attention [2] - Glass futures prices were weak on Monday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,179 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.68%. Spot prices were stable. The market's concern about supply decline has eased, demand support is insufficient, and short - term market sentiment is weak. Attention should be paid to policy expectations and supply changes [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On October 13, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 6,917, a decrease of 100 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 21 [5] - On October 13, the daily output of the urea industry was 192,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 3,400 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 82.06%, a decrease of 2.52 percentage points from 84.58% in the same period last year [5] - On October 13, the small - particle urea spot prices in various domestic regions were: Shandong 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Hebei 1,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; Anhui 1,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On October 13, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 7,565, an increase of 512 from the previous trading day, with 1,839 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7] - On October 13, the soda ash spot prices were: North China light soda 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,300 yuan/ton; Central China light soda 1,150 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,250 yuan/ton; East China light soda 1,130 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,250 yuan/ton; South China light soda 1,350 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,400 yuan/ton; Southwest light soda 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1,300 yuan/ton; Northwest light soda 950 yuan/ton, heavy soda 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [7] - On October 13, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.28%, compared with 84.39% on the previous working day [8] - On October 13, the average price of the float glass market was 1,264 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the industry's daily output was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8] Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume and open interest, price difference, and spot price trend charts of urea and soda ash, as well as the futures price difference charts of urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][18][19]