Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - Corn is predicted to have a weak and fluctuating trend. On Monday, the November contract of corn declined under pressure, breaking through the 2,200 yuan integer mark. The spot price of corn continued to fall, with the average domestic corn price at 2,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The new corn supply increase is negatively affecting the market [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate within a range. On Monday, CBOT soybeans stabilized. In China, protein meal fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume increased. In September, the domestic soybean arrival volume was 12.87 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.8%. The domestic soybean meal spot market is very loose, and the oil - mill inventory is at a high level. The post - holiday restocking demand has been released, but the demand sustainability is poor [1]. - The long - term outlook for oils is positive, with a strategy of buying on dips. On Monday, BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day. An institution predicts that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia will rise by 3% to 2.4 million tons in October. In China, the three major vegetable oils declined collectively, with rapeseed oil leading the decline and palm oil following. The international crude oil slump triggered the decline in oil prices. The market rumor that an oil - mill obtained the import qualification for Australian rapeseed caused the largest decline in rapeseed oil. The inventory of oils decreased last week, reducing the oil - mill inventory pressure [1]. - Eggs are expected to have a weak and fluctuating trend. On Monday, the main contract of egg futures opened lower, fluctuated slightly upwards, and closed up 0.07% at 2,808 yuan/500 kilograms. The spot price of eggs continued to be weak. The egg supply is sufficient, the terminal digestion is poor, and the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level. The egg - laying rate is expected to rise after the temperature drops in the north, increasing the supply pressure [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to fluctuate. On Monday, the pig futures price fluctuated at a low level. In the spot market, the pig price continued to fall. The current national average ex - factory price of三元 pigs is 10.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg compared to the previous day. The daily slaughter volume and the daily sales volume of pigs increased slightly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: The November contract of corn declined under pressure on Monday, with the spot price falling. The northeast corn price is weak, the north port has more arrivals and general shipments, and the north China price continues to decline. The new corn supply increase is the main negative factor [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans stabilized on Monday. In China, the protein meal fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume increased. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September was high, the spot market was loose, and the oil - mill inventory was high. The post - holiday restocking demand was released, but the demand sustainability was poor [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day. An institution predicts a rise in Malaysian palm oil inventory in October. In China, the three major vegetable oils declined, with rapeseed oil leading the decline. The international crude oil slump and the rumor of Australian rapeseed import qualification affected the prices. The oil inventory decreased last week [1]. - Eggs: The main contract of egg futures opened lower and closed slightly up on Monday. The spot price of eggs continued to be weak, with sufficient supply, poor terminal digestion, and high egg - laying hen inventory [1][2]. - Pigs: The pig futures price fluctuated at a low level on Monday, and the spot price continued to fall. The daily slaughter volume and the daily sales volume of pigs increased slightly, and the average weight of pigs decreased slightly [2]. Market Information - The US claims to impose a 100% tariff on China, and China firmly opposes it [3]. - As of October 10, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.2651 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,400 tons or 1.31%. The national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 547,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,600 tons [3]. - As of October 10, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil - mills was 18,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 41,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [3]. - From October 1 - 10, 2025, the daily yield, oil extraction rate, and output of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month [3]. - In Henan, there will be a short rain - free period next week, followed by intermittent precipitation. The new soybeans will be concentrated on the market. It is expected that the price of new soybeans in Henan will first fall and then stabilize in mid - to late October, with the common commodity price ranging from 5,000 - 5,300 yuan/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides various contract spreads and contract basis charts including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific spread or basis data is described in text [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][23] Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural products research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Products Analyst" title multiple times and has rich experience and achievements [27]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Products Analyst" title multiple times and has published many articles in industry journals [27]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher for eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is a guest analyst on First Financial Channel and has participated in many media interviews [27].
农产品日报-20251014
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 06:27