Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overnight LME copper price rose significantly, with the domestic market following suit. However, the spot import window remained closed, indicating cautious sentiment in the domestic market. The Fed official's support for two interest rate cuts this year and the US government's conciliatory remarks on Sino - US trade talks boosted market risk appetite and drove up non - ferrous metal prices. Copper prices may maintain a relatively strong trend due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - Alumina showed a weak and volatile trend, while aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong and volatile trend. Alumina is generally bearish but may be bottoming out. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, and whether it can rise further depends on the improvement of demand [1][2]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel ore market is relatively stable, but policy risks in Indonesia need to be watched out for. The nickel - iron and stainless - steel industries and the new energy industry also have different trends [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose, and the domestic market followed. LME copper inventory decreased by 50 tons to 139,395 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,224 tons to 309,239 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,926 tons to 32,890 tons, and BC copper decreased by 75 tons to 7,018 tons. High copper prices led to a decline in downstream orders and a slowdown in spot procurement, and social inventory increased. Copper prices may be strong but have a low probability of exceeding previous domestic highs [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina was weakly volatile (AO2601 closed at 2,897 yuan/ton, down 0.64%), aluminum was strongly volatile (AL2510 closed at 20,975 yuan/ton, up 0.55%), and aluminum alloy was strongly volatile (AD2511 closed at 20,490 yuan/ton, up 0.52%). Alumina prices fell, and the profit of alumina plants was further compressed. The aluminum price is expected to be strong, and the follow - up trend depends on demand improvement [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.23% to 15,180 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.34% to 121,240 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 4,716 tons to 242,094 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 44 tons to 25,272 tons. The nickel ore market is relatively stable, but policy risks in Indonesia need attention. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On October 13, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 85,010 yuan/ton, down 1,645 yuan from October 10. LME inventory decreased by 50 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,926 tons, and social inventory increased by 36,000 tons [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead was 17,030 yuan/ton on October 13, up 50 yuan from October 10. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased by 1,978 tons [3]. - Aluminum: On October 13, the Wuxi quotation was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from October 10. LME inventory decreased by 2,825 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,032 tons, and social inventory increased slightly [4]. - Nickel: On October 13, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 123,675 yuan/ton, down 1,350 yuan from October 10. LME inventory increased by 4,716 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 44 tons, and social inventory increased by 2,866 tons [4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price on October 13 was 22,285 yuan/ton, down 0.4% from October 10. LME inventory decreased by 475 tons, and social inventory increased by 17,300 tons [6]. - Tin: The main settlement price on October 13 was 283,550 yuan/ton, down 1.7% from October 10. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 550 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, including copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, etc. [42][44][48]. 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, etc. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [51]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [51]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [52].
有色商品日报-20251014
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 06:39