光大期货软商品日报-20251014

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to operate under pressure in the short - term. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level, with the US dollar index strongly oscillating above 99, pressuring the US cotton price. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a new cotton harvest this year, and the supply pressure will persist for a long time [1]. - Sugar is expected to continue to show a weak oscillation, following the trend of raw sugar. The market is short of drivers after the sharp decline, and it awaits the crushing data of the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Cotton: On Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.47% to 63.54 cents per pound, CF601 decreased 0.41% to 13,300 yuan per ton, and the main contract positions increased by 8,508 to 563,400 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,450 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Sugar: An investigation shows that the expected cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is 40.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the expected sugar production is 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The US market tumbled by over 3%, and the domestic market also declined after the overnight opening [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 60, down 10; the main basis was 1489, up 57; the Xinjiang spot price was 14,642, up 12, and the national spot price was 14,789, up 14 [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 30, down 2; the main basis was 350, up 26; the Nanning spot price was 5800, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5820, down 15 [2]. Market Information - On October 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,867, down 75 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 31 [3]. - On October 13, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 14,642 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,871 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,802 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,957 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On October 13, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.6, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 26.1, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 29.3, up 0.1 from the previous day [3]. - On October 13, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5800 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou it was 5820 yuan per ton, down 15 from the previous day [3]. - On October 13, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,681, down 186 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4].