黑色商品日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be weakly volatile. The export of steel products shows strong resilience, but there is still significant pressure on supply and demand, and macro - level disturbances are increasing [1]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Although the supply has decreased, the demand remains at a relatively high level, presenting a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term. The procurement attitude of enterprises is cautious, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient, but the short - term demand has certain support [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have a weakly volatile trend in the short term. The fundamental driving force is limited, and they mainly follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the new round of steel tenders [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel Products: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions of 26,600 lots. Spot prices slightly declined, and the trading volume was low. In September 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron - making output decreased by 0.23 tons to 2.4154 million tons. The steel mill profit margin continued to decline slightly, and the port inventory increased while the steel mill inventory decreased [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1146 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.29%, with a decrease in positions of 7044 lots. Some coal mine production slightly recovered, and the procurement enthusiasm of traders slowed down. The subsequent maintenance of steel mills may expand [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1642.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 1.44%, with an increase in positions of 569 lots. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was slightly repaired. Steel mills purchased on demand, and some had production restrictions and maintenance [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract was reported at 5746 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The supply decreased slightly from the high level, and the demand was limited. The cost of manganese ore was relatively stable, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: On Monday, the silicon iron futures price was volatile and weak. The main contract was reported at 5406 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The cost support was weak, the production enterprise's operating rate was relatively high, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 56.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 13.0, down 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - Basis: For example, the basis of the rebar 01 contract was 137.0, up 10.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 01 contract was 41.0, down 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - Spot: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220.0, down 10.0 from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 796.0, up 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar disk profit was - 108.7, down 23.7 from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 178.0, down 4.0 from the previous day [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][37][39]. - Inter - variety Contract Spread: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [40][41][42][44]. - Rebar Profit: Charts show the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [53].