光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 1.12% to 72,280 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 450 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 150 yuan/ton to 73,300 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,951 tons to 36,718 tons [3]. - Jinyuan Co., Ltd. stated that its Baqiancuo Salt Lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentine Carlo project is still in the exploration phase [3]. - The overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The weekly production in China continued to increase slightly, with the lithium carbonate production in October increasing by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile decreased in September, which may have a certain but minor impact on the imported lithium salts in October. On the demand side, October is still in the peak season. The consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode + electrolyte + others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 135,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly. From the perspective of weekly inventory flow, the downstream and intermediate links reduced inventory, while the upstream accumulated inventory [3]. - The peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and the firm price of lithium ore support the price. However, there are still expectations of project restart, and with the increase in overseas imports, the tight domestic balance will gradually be alleviated. In the short term, the price will fluctuate, and macro - disturbances should be watched out for [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 72,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from October 10; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,800 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 829 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,055 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,765 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,980 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,070 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 73,100 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 73,330 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,300 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 68,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.48 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price was 71,500 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 230 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,015.36 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 98,150 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 90,525 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 83,450 yuan/ton, up 1,800 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 103,025 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 121,625 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 124,975 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 154,300 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,530 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 32,135 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 29,350 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 338,500 yuan/ton, up 24,000 yuan [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.396 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.41 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.42 yuan/piece, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.332 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.34 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 6.75 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.303 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts present the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price [10][12][13]. - Price Spreads: Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis [16][18][19]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium [22][25][27]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [29][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [36]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 [40].