固收、宏观周报：不确定性仍存，避险情绪提升-20251014

Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The uncertainty remains, and the risk aversion sentiment has increased. The A-share market may fluctuate in the short term, but there are still structural opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to sectors such as gold, rare earths, AI, computing power, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs. Gold is expected to continue rising, and the bond market is turning bullish [15][16]. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - In the past two weeks (20250929 - 20251012), the three major US stock indexes declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by -1.24%, -1.37%, and -1.66% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 0.29%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62% [3]. - Most A-share sectors rose. The Wind All-A Index changed by 1.63%. Among different indexes, the CSI A100, SSE 50, and others showed varying degrees of increase, while some indexes like the ChiNext Index and the North Securities 50 Index declined [4]. - Among the 30 CITIC industries, 25 industries rose, and 5 declined. The leading industries were non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, and building materials, with gains of more than 4.0% in the past two weeks [5]. Bond Market Performance - In the past two weeks, the price of interest rate bonds rose, and the yields of most maturity varieties declined. The 10-year Treasury bond futures main contract rose by 0.28% compared to September 28, 2025. The yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond declined by 5.75BP to 1.8206% [6]. - The capital price decreased. As of October 11, 2025, R007 was 1.4120%, a decrease of 22.60BP compared to September 28, 2025, and DR007 was 1.3945%, a decrease of 16.11BP. The central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 144.64 billion yuan in the past two weeks [7]. - The bond market leverage level decreased. The 5-day average of the inter-bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 6.35 trillion yuan on September 28, 2025, to 5.61 trillion yuan on October 11, 2025 [8][9]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the yield curve shifted downward as a whole. As of October 11, 2025, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined by 15BP to 4.05% compared to September 26, 2025 [10]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index increased by 0.64% in the past two weeks. The US dollar had different exchange rate changes against the euro, pound, and yen, and also had mixed changes against the offshore and onshore RMB [11]. - Gold prices rose. The London gold spot price rose by 5.43% to $3,974.50 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 6.75% to $3,986.20 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also increased [11]. Policy and Trade Issues - China has strengthened export controls on some rare earth-related items and technologies. These controls are mainly targeted at military use items, and civilian and compliant items will be permitted. The policy has a reasonable transition period, and the government will promote compliant trade [12]. - The US has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China in response to China's rare earth export controls. China's Ministry of Commerce has responded, stating that China is not afraid of a tariff war. Whether the US will actually impose the tariff is uncertain, and if it does, China may retaliate. The impact on the A-share market is expected to be less than that in early April [14][15].