氧化铝期货日报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alumina market is currently in a multi - empty game situation of "increasing supply, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". Supply increases both domestically and internationally, and inventory accumulates, which is the core factor suppressing prices. However, the support near the cost line is gradually emerging, reducing the risk of excessive price decline. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to maintain a weak oscillatory trend within a range [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Spot Market - Basis Data The basis of the active alumina ao2601 contract has weakened recently. The spot price of alumina in Shandong is 2880 yuan/ton, the futures contract has dropped 19 yuan/ton from the previous closing price, and the basis on that day is 24 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1 Industry Information On October 10, the domestic spot market showed a stable trend. The price of domestic active powder alumina in Henan was 5750 yuan/ton and remained unchanged since October 3. The futures market was relatively weak, and the linkage between spot and futures prices weakened due to light short - term spot trading and traders' wait - and - see attitude. The weighted full cost of alumina in the Jin and Yu regions is about 3025 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, limiting the downward space of spot prices, but there is no momentum for spot price rebound under the oversupply situation [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis The main alumina contract shows a clear oscillatory and bearish trend. On the daily line level, the contract price has been running below the 5 - day moving average since falling from the previous high. On October 10, it rebounded to 2913 yuan/ton and then fell back, confirming the suppression of the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with the previous day, and the price decline accompanied by increased volume indicates that short - selling power is still being released [8]. 4. Market Outlook The alumina market is in a situation of "supply increase, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". The supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress prices, while the cost line provides support. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly within a range [10].