镍与不锈钢日评：偏弱震荡-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to the impact of Sino - US relations, weak fundamentals, and inventory pressure [1] - Stainless steel prices are also expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support and inventory pressure is not significant, also affected by Sino - US relations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - Market Performance: On October 10, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened high and went low. The trading volume was 159,070 lots (+28,206), and the open interest was 77,840 lots (-8,198). LME nickel fell 1.79%. The spot market had fair trading volume, and the basis changed from discount to premium [1] - Supply Side: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic production increased, and Indonesian production also increased, leading to an increase in nickel iron inventory. In October, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded [1] - Demand Side: Ternary battery production increased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating remained stable [1] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [1] - Trading Strategy: Close out previous short positions on dips [1] Stainless Steel - Market Performance: On October 10, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 71,114 lots (-17,081), and the open interest was 53,409 lots (-7,105). The spot market had average trading volume, and the basis premium widened [1] - Supply Side: Stainless - steel production in October decreased [1] - Demand Side: Terminal demand was weak [1] - Cost Side: High - nickel pig iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [1] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased. Last week, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 619,400 tons (+33,900) [1] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [1] Market Policy - Starting from the closing settlement on October 14, 2025, the daily price limit range of nickel and tin futures contracts will be adjusted to 8%. The trading margin ratio for hedging positions will be adjusted to 9%, and the general trading margin ratio will be adjusted to 10%. The daily price limit range of butadiene rubber and natural rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 7%, and the trading margin ratio for hedging positions will be adjusted to 8%, and the general trading margin ratio will be adjusted to 9% [1]