铝周报：宏观影响较大，沪铝回归震荡-20251014

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The aluminum market is significantly affected by macro - factors. With the continuous escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and the release of negotiation signals, along with the influence of China's import and export data, the market sentiment fluctuates. The short - term trend of Shanghai Aluminum returns to oscillation, and the medium - term trend depends on the change of spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the market tumbled on Friday night, but rebounded on Sunday morning after the US signaled negotiation. China's September import and export data are optimistic, and market sentiment is repaired. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20885 today, with the spot price at 20800 and a spot - to - futures discount of - 85 points. Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell this week, with the spot discount widening to - 50 yuan and general spot trading [1]. - Crude oil and LME Aluminum rebounded today. Shanghai Aluminum opened low and closed slightly down, with increased trading volume and decreased positions, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, the SHFE inventory rose slightly, and the spot demand was general. The LME inventory was stable, the LME spot premium rose to 12 US dollars, and overseas demand improved. The end of the off - season led to a slight improvement in spot demand [1]. Price and Ratio - The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped significantly to 7.53, showing that the domestic market performed weaker than the overseas market [1]. - The alumina price has been falling as the anti - involution hype subsided [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | Aluminum - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Sep 29 | 7.1293 | - 30 | - 4 | 7.84 | | Sep 30 | 7.1288 | - 30 | - 2 | 7.75 | | Oct 9 | 7.1378 | - 60 | 2 | 7.73 | | Oct 10 | 7.1483 | - 60 | 8 | 7.59 | | Oct 13 | 7.1358 | - 50 | 12 | 7.53 | [3]