中国期货每日简报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 13, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities fell, with energy & chemicals performing weakly [2][10][13]. - China's exports increased by 7.1% and imports decreased by 0.2% in the first three quarters year-on-year [1][3][43][44]. - Gold may enter a high-level consolidation phase in the short term, and remains in a long-term bull market. Silver may continue its upward trend in the short term, and its mid-term price level is expected to move upward [21][22][23][24]. - Oil prices still show a downward trend. If tariff concerns do not improve, the short-term downward trend of oil prices is expected to continue; if tariff concerns ease or phased geopolitical risks emerge, oil prices will rebound accordingly, but the downward trend will still be hard to reverse [27][28][29]. - Glass prices are expected to mainly fluctuate in line with macroeconomic trends in the short term, and high inventories in the midstream and downstream sectors may suppress glass prices for forward-month contracts in the medium to long term [35][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On October 13, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities fell, with energy & chemicals performing weakly [10]. - The top three gainers of China's commodity futures are rapeseed, silver, and methanol, while the top three decliners are glass, LSFO, and synthetic rubber [11][12]. - Equity indices fell, with IF decreasing by 0.7%. CGB futures rose, among which TL increased by 0.4% [13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Gold/Silver - On October 13, gold increased by 2.0% to 927.56 yuan/gram, and silver increased by 2.8% to 11531 yuan/kg [18][23]. - Gold may enter a high-level consolidation phase in the short term. In the long term, it remains in a long-term bull market. Silver may continue its upward trend in the short term, and its mid-term price level is expected to move upward [19][20][21][22][23][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Crude Oil - On October 13, crude oil decreased by 2.7% to 453.7 yuan/barrel. Oil prices still show a downward trend [27][29]. - Fundamental pressures persist, geopolitical support is marginally weakening, and macro risks are intensifying again. If tariff concerns do not improve, the short-term downward trend of oil prices is expected to continue; if tariff concerns ease or phased geopolitical risks emerge, oil prices will rebound accordingly, but the downward trend will still be hard to reverse [27][28][29]. 3.1.3.2 Glass - On October 13, glass decreased by 3.7% to 1179 yuan/ton [34][40][41]. - Short-term demand is seasonally recovering, but long-term demand lacks upward flexibility. Recently, industrial contradictions have been limited, and glass prices are expected to mainly fluctuate in line with macroeconomic trends. In the medium to long term, high inventories in the midstream and downstream sectors may suppress glass prices for forward-month contracts [35][40]. - The resumption of U.S. tariff hikes on China has a limited impact on glass supply and demand, but it may make the overall macro atmosphere relatively pessimistic, leading to a decline in the macro premium of glass futures prices [39][40]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Canadian provincial governments call for the removal of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [43][44]. - China's goods trade import and export reached 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, up 4% year-on-year. Among them, exports reached 19.95 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year; imports stood at 13.66 trillion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year [43][44]. - The Dutch government will impose restrictive measures on Nexperia under Wingtech Technology, and China responds by opposing the overgeneralization of the concept of "national security" and discriminatory practices [43][44]. 3.2.2 Industry News - Multiple banks execute the first batch of cross-border bond repurchase transactions, with the trading volume on the first day reaching 5.8 billion yuan. The cross-border RMB repurchase market is expected to achieve steady growth in scale and activity, marking China's bond market moving towards a deeper "rule- and system-based" opening-up [45].