Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The total return ratio of gold to U.S. Treasuries has risen to 0.37 as of September 2025, indicating that high inflation risks may have been fully priced in[4] - Bank credit growth has rebounded to 4.7% year-on-year as of August 2025, the highest level in 24 months, which may help suppress rising unemployment rates in the U.S.[7] - The 10-year government bond yield spread between France and Germany has widened to 79 basis points, reflecting a lack of confidence in French government bonds[10] Group 2: Productivity and Market Trends - U.S. labor productivity is projected to grow by 66.3% by 2026 compared to Q4 2019, significantly outpacing Europe and Japan[13] - The long-term trend of Chinese equity assets outperforming other emerging markets appears to have resumed, with the MSCI China Index showing a recovery[15] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is currently at 4.3%, indicating potential for valuation uplift compared to historical averages[18] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is at 29 basis points, which is 59 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[20] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has decreased to 2.6, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.2, indicating diverging signals in the market[26] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds in China is at 28.5, above the average level of the past 16 years, suggesting increased attractiveness of equity assets[28]
【资产配置快评】2025年第45期:Riders on the Charts:每周大类资产配置图表精粹-20251014
Huachuang Securities·2025-10-14 07:46