Western Securities(SZ:002673) Western Securities·2025-10-14 07:44Group 1 - The current trade conflict between China and the US is expected to have a longer duration compared to April, as the US faces fewer constraints now, allowing for a more prolonged hardline stance from Trump [1][3][4] - China's economic resilience has been validated, with a significant reduction in reliance on the US market, decreasing from an average of 14.6% in 2024 to 10.5% since April 2025, providing China with more confidence to withstand US pressure [2][8] - The US has made significant progress in trade agreements with Europe and Japan, which enhances its bargaining power against China, making it less likely for Trump to back down easily [3][4] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming APEC summit at the end of the month, suggesting that the timing of Trump's tariff implementation on November 1 may be strategically aligned with this meeting [4][8] - The report highlights the need for caution in trading strategies, advising against reliance on past patterns of market behavior during trade negotiations, as the current situation may not follow the same trajectory as in April [4][20] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high certainty, such as non-ferrous metals and high-end manufacturing, while also considering consumer goods that are currently undervalued [4][20] Group 3 - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI in China for September was recorded at 49.8, slightly below expectations, indicating a need for policy intervention to stimulate demand [11][12] - The report discusses the implications of the US government shutdown on economic data releases, which may affect future monetary policy decisions [15][17] - The report indicates that the global economic environment remains mixed, with varying performance in manufacturing and service sectors across different regions, impacting overall market sentiment [18][19] Group 4 - The report outlines the performance of various asset classes, noting a decline in oil prices due to oversupply expectations, while gold prices have risen significantly amid increased demand for safe-haven assets [27][28] - The report highlights the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, with the US dollar strengthening slightly and the Chinese yuan experiencing a minor depreciation [28][30] - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the stock market performance, indicating a mixed response with some sectors outperforming others, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions [20][22]