烧碱期货周报：窄幅震荡-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the week of 20250929 - 0930, the caustic soda futures price showed a narrow - range consolidation with a weekly increase of 0.12%, and the spot price remained stable. Future attention should be paid to the inventory - stocking situation of downstream alumina plants and the enterprise inventory data after the National Day [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price: The caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range oscillation this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH601) rose 3 yuan/ton to 2531 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase, with a high of 2536 yuan/ton, a low of 2486 yuan/ton. The position was 83,862 lots, a decrease of 24,858 lots from last week, and the trading volume decreased by 1.112 million lots to 504,382 lots [2]. - Variety Market: Most caustic soda prices declined this week, the near - month contracts performed slightly stronger, and the position of the main contract SH601 continued to decrease [2]. - Associated Market: The trading volume of call options for the caustic soda 01 contract was less than that of put options this week. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2240 - 2640 point range [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Market Conditions: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, and the liquid caustic soda price in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis Data: This week, the caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range adjustment, the spot price remained stable, and the basis widened slightly. On one hand, the futures price oscillated and sorted out; on the other hand, the spot price remained stable with minor adjustments in some regions [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Latest News: The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was stable with a weak trend. Before the holiday, the supply - demand fluctuations were relatively limited, and the purchase price of the main downstream was adjusted to 740 yuan/ton [9]. - Technical Analysis: This week, the daily line of the main caustic soda contract SH601 had a narrow - range adjustment, the trading volume decreased significantly compared with last week, and it was currently in a downward channel [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook This week, the caustic soda futures price oscillated and sorted out, and the price strengthened on the last trading day before the holiday. The position of the main contract decreased, and the overall position remained below 100,000 lots. In terms of demand, the receiving volume of the main downstream liquid caustic soda decreased, and the overall demand was average. Enterprises also loosened their prices to destock, and the prices in some regions were under downward pressure. The profit of the main downstream alumina shrank, and the non - aluminum demand was also lower than expected, presenting a weak reality pattern. Future attention should be paid to whether the inventory - stocking demand before the commissioning of new alumina production capacity can be realized and the impact of the overall enterprise inventory change after the National Day [14].