政策与大类资产配置周观察：特朗普TACO交易再起

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The total cross-regional population flow during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival reached approximately 2.432 billion, marking a historical high for the same period, with an average of 304 million daily, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [10][11] - Premier Li Qiang attended the 80th anniversary celebration of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, indicating a strengthening of diplomatic ties [13][14] - Vice Premier He Lifeng met with executives from multinational companies, emphasizing the continuous expansion of high-level opening-up and welcoming foreign investment in China [16][17] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a slight adjustment post-National Day, with the ChiNext Index dropping by 3.86%, while the Wande Micro Index rose by 0.66% in the first two trading days after the holiday [25] - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight rebound but still below the expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [27][28] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 426.3 billion yuan in the open market post-holiday, indicating a tightening of liquidity [47] Group 3: International Trade and Policy Outlook - The WTO raised its global trade growth forecast for 2025 from 0.9% to 2.4%, driven by strong demand for AI-related products and increased trade among emerging economies [18][19] - The report highlighted that AI-related goods contributed nearly half of the overall trade growth in the first half of the year, with a 20% increase in trade value [19][23] - The anticipated economic policies suggest a focus on maintaining stability and flexibility in fiscal and monetary measures to address potential geopolitical risks and uncertainties [5][6]