迎接“破1”时代，货基会消失吗？

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - With the decline of the interest rate center, China's money market fund (MMF) yields have entered the "1%" era. Given the current weak fundamentals, MMF yields may continue to adjust, and a full "break below 1%" is just a matter of time. However, MMFs are important liquidity management tools for both households and institutions. The expansion space of China's MMFs remains large [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. MMF Yields Breaking Below 1% is Inevitable in a Low-Interest Rate Environment - MMF yields have been continuously declining and entered the 1% range this year. In September 2025, the monthly average yield of MMFs was about 1.15%, a decrease of 0.17bp compared to June. The 25% quantile of the 7-day annualized yield of MMFs also dropped to 1.04%. All MMF yields have been below 2% since this year, and the yield range with the highest proportion of MMF numbers has shifted left for two consecutive quarters, reaching 1.0% - 1.2% at the end of the second quarter [9]. - Deposits, certificates of deposit (CDs), and funds lending are the basic allocation of MMFs, driving the continuous decline of MMF yields. In the second quarter of 2025, the allocation proportion of MMFs to interbank certificates of deposit, bank deposits, and repurchase agreements reached 91.6%. Against the backdrop of the central bank's continuous loose monetary policy, the decline of the broad - spectrum interest rate center has led to a synchronous decline in MMF yields [11]. - Considering the need to support the fundamentals, cooperate with fiscal policies, and resolve bank risks, the broad - spectrum interest rate is likely to continue to decline, and it is only a matter of time before MMF yields "break below 1%" on a large scale [15]. 2. MMFs are Important Liquidity Management Tools for Households and Institutions 2.1 Household Sector: Deposit Outflow and the Re - balance between "Yield and Liquidity" - The phenomenon of financial disintermediation may deepen under low - interest rates, and MMFs are one of the main channels for household deposit transfer. In Japan's low - interest - rate era, household time deposits were largely converted into demand deposits, and deposits remained within the bank balance sheet. In China, there has been an acceleration of financial disintermediation, with household deposits flowing out of the balance sheet and into fixed - income - like product investments. From July to August this year, non - bank deposits increased significantly while household deposits increased less, mainly due to the rising preference for wealth management and other investments among households [17][18]. - Households' preference for liquidity and stable returns will also benefit MMFs. After the epidemic, households first valued stable returns. From 2024, their preference gradually shifted to "balancing yield and liquidity". Compared with wealth management products, MMFs have the advantage of the amortized cost method, with less volatility, smoother returns, and more flexible and diverse promotion channels [25][26]. 2.2 Institutional Sector: Cash Management Tools for Institutional Investors - For institutional investors, MMFs have high flexibility and resilience in a low - interest - rate environment. In the short term, MMF yields may face some pressure. In the long run, if the funds rate continues to decline, the flexibility advantage of MMFs in underlying asset allocation will be evident [34]. - Compared with short - term bond funds, MMFs have more prominent advantages. Short - term bond funds face the dual pressures of low interest rates and high volatility. The implementation of the new fund sales regulations will also impact short - term bond funds, and the cost advantage of MMFs will be more obvious, leading to a potential diversion of funds from short - term bond funds to MMFs [35]. 3. MMFs Will Not Disappear in China 3.1 How are MMFs in Overseas Markets? - Different economies have different development paths for MMFs in a low - interest - rate environment. Japan's MMFs have almost disappeared because of extremely low interest rates and the freedom for funds to go overseas. In the US and Europe, MMFs show strong resilience. In the US, MMFs are still important cash management tools, with a relatively strong economic base, strong ability to absorb global funds, and more diversified product types. In the eurozone, MMF yields were higher than the funds rate during the negative - interest - rate period [41][42]. 3.2 What are the Differences in China's MMFs? - China's MMFs may develop more like those in the US and still have development potential and space in the medium and long term. Under the central bank's "interest rate corridor + macro - prudential" adjustment model, China's short - term interest rates are unlikely to fall into the extreme negative range like in Europe and Japan. The asymmetry in the "convenience of funds going overseas" also means that due to relatively strict capital account management in China, the demand for liquidity management remains, and MMFs still have value. The resonance of channels and regulatory orientation makes MMFs beneficiaries of policies. The deep binding of online payment scenarios and the construction of an ecological closed - loop by platforms have significantly enhanced the competitive advantage of MMFs [48][49].