Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The ore price is still in a game stage. Domestic mines in northern China are affected by rainfall, and alumina plants are facing losses, so it is difficult to give a premium to the ore end. The rainy season in Guinea is coming to an end, but the port arrival volume has not recovered, the port inventory has slightly declined, and the price of imported ore is relatively firm. Currently, alumina plants have not triggered production cuts. Later, attention should be paid to the fluctuation of imported ore prices. If the ore price does not fall, the situation of cash - flow losses cannot be maintained for a long time, and enterprises in Henan with insufficient domestic ore supply will face greater difficulties. From the perspective of Henan, there is no negative impact on the consumption end. Although the overall operating rate has declined year - on - year, the output has increased year - on - year, and the growth rate is higher than the national average. Affected by capacity expansion, local processing enterprises may face problems such as insufficient orders, low operating rates, and low processing fees, but in actual production, they have not shown cash - flow losses through methods such as increasing the amount of scrap added and increasing scale to reduce costs, and the overall output is still guaranteed [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Henan Alumina in Operation with Imported Ore Capacity Faces Pressure - Henan's alumina built - in capacity is 13.07 million tons, operating capacity is 8.9 million tons, with an operating rate of 68%, the lowest in the country where the national average is 85.6%. There are currently only 5 alumina factories in production, all of which are large - scale group enterprises [9]. - The production cost in Henan is also the highest in the country. The current cash cost of producing with domestic ore is 2,940 yuan/ton, and with imported ore is 3,100 yuan/ton. According to the current market price, domestic ore production breaks even, while imported ore production faces cash - flow losses [9]. - The reason why production cuts have not been triggered is not that the price is too low, but mainly because the loss period is not long enough. Calculated according to the cash cost and the alumina website quotation, the production with imported ore in Henan started to lose money in mid - to - early September, and the three - network average price of the long - term agreement in September is 3,100 yuan/ton. From the factory's perspective, cash losses will start in October, so production cuts have not been triggered at present [9]. - Alumina winter storage has no impact on Henan. The monthly alumina output in Henan is 650,000 tons, while the monthly electrolytic aluminum output is only 150,000 tons. The local alumina supply is sufficient and the transportation distance is short. Even in case of extreme weather in winter, the impact is extremely limited. Moreover, the relocation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Henan is the mainstream trend [10]. 2. Research on Enterprises in Henan's Alumina Industry - Enterprise 1: A Henan alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 2.6 million tons. It has 4 roasting furnaces, with 3 in operation at present, with a daily output of 1,800 tons. The annual sales of non - metallurgical alumina and aluminum hydroxide reach 1.7 million tons. It uses more than 100,000 tons of domestic ore per month, accounting for about 25%, which is a relatively low level in Henan. The bauxite inventory is 1.5 months. There is no cash - flow loss in September, and the high cost is mainly due to the high - priced ore in the previous period in the current bauxite inventory [11]. - Enterprise 2: A Henan alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 1.4 million tons. It shut down a 400,000 - ton imported ore production line in the first half of the year and has no plan to resume production. Currently, all 1 million tons use local domestic ore from its own mines, and the probability of further shutdown is very low. It may reduce production due to environmental protection factors such as natural gas in winter, but the impact is limited. Lithium extraction has been carried out in the production process, with an annual output of more than 1,000 tons of lithium, and the cost is higher than that of lithium extraction from salt lakes [11]. - Enterprise 3: A Henan electrolytic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 360,000 tons operating at full capacity. 70,000 tons of production capacity has been transferred to Ningxia, and the remaining capacity will also be transferred later. It sells 100% of its products through long - term agreements. The alumina raw material inventory is 5 days, but the tailings are not very useful, and the actual available inventory is 2 days. It does not carry out winter storage, and the nearest alumina plant is only 20 kilometers away, so it can ensure supply even in case of extreme weather [11]. 3. Henan's Processing Enterprises' Dilemma Does Not Equal Poor Consumption - The supply of aluminum elements and the supply of aluminum processed products are in two different dimensions. Since September, it has entered the traditional seasonal consumption peak season. From the perspective of aluminum elements, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 1.14% year - on - year, the daily output has increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by 2.54% year - on - year and 1.23% month - on - month, which is the main reason for the decline in the operating rate and processing fees felt by processing plants [24]. - Aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils are the most mainstream primary processed products, accounting for a large proportion of aluminum consumption. As of now, the output of aluminum rods in 2025 is about 13.65 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.8%. The cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils from January to August is 9.637 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils in Henan from January to August is 4.023 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in August is 3.7% [24]. - Henan is a concentrated area for aluminum strip production in China, accounting for 39% of the national output. Currently, the operating rate of local enterprises is generally lower than in previous years, and enterprise profitability is difficult. However, this is not due to poor consumption. The output growth rate of aluminum strips and foils in Henan has long been higher than the national average, but the processing fees need to compete with integrated electrolytic aluminum processing plants, resulting in a poor feeling for Henan's processing plants [24]. 4. Research on Henan's Aluminum Processing Enterprises - Enterprise 3: An aluminum strip processing enterprise. It purchases 40% of the molten aluminum from local aluminum plants at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the Yangtze River price, and the remaining 60% is aluminum ingots for easy adjustment of production. Its built - in capacity is 70,000 - 80,000 tons, and the current operating rate is over 60%, which has increased compared with the off - season, but was 100% in the same period last year. The overall operating rate of aluminum strip and foil enterprises in Gongyi is 50% - 60%, which is difficult for factories to make a profit. The discount for molten aluminum procurement has been narrowing year by year, and electrolytic aluminum plants are in a strong position in sales. If aluminum ingots are remelted, about 40 cubic meters of natural gas are needed, and it is rare for the discount of aluminum ingot procurement in Gongyi to exceed 200 yuan/ton. There are also losses in remelting, and the electrolyte loss for purchasing molten aluminum is about 150 yuan/ton. 20% of the downstream consumption is exported through traders, and the normal finished product inventory is 1,000 tons. If the inventory exceeds the normal level, the operating rate will be considered to be reduced [25]. - Enterprise 2: An aluminum rod processing enterprise. It purchases 100% of the molten aluminum from surrounding electrolytic aluminum plants at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the Yangtze River price. Previously, the discount could reach 200 yuan/ton. Due to long - term agreements, it cannot adjust production and operates at 100% throughout the year. The electrolyte loss is 0.5%, and the total loss in the production process is 1.2%. The maximum annual loss is 100 - 200 yuan/ton, and currently it is at the break - even point. Since there are no costs such as bank interest, depreciation, and land, it still makes a profit. There were originally 4 aluminum rod processing enterprises in the park, and now only this one remains. It needs to compete with integrated electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod plants in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, so the competition is difficult. Local downstream processing enterprises often expand production through loans to reduce costs, but the processing profit has been declining year by year, and the method of blind expansion is unsustainable [26]. 5. Summary Alumina - Henan's alumina built - in capacity is 13.07 million tons, operating capacity is 8.9 million tons, with an operating rate of 68%, the lowest in the country where the national average is 85.6% [37]. - The production cost in Henan is also the highest in the country. The current cash cost of producing with domestic ore is 2,940 yuan/ton, and with imported ore is 3,100 yuan/ton. According to the current market price, domestic ore production breaks even, while imported ore production faces cash - flow losses [37]. - The three - network average price of the long - term agreement in September is 3,100 yuan/ton. From the factory's perspective, cash losses will start in October, so production cuts have not been triggered at present [37]. Downstream Consumption - Since September, it has entered the traditional seasonal consumption peak season. From the perspective of aluminum elements, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 1.14% year - on - year, the daily output has increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by 2.54% year - on - year and 1.23% month - on - month, which is the main reason for the decline in the operating rate and processing fees felt by processing plants [38]. - Henan is a concentrated area for aluminum strip production in China, accounting for 39% of the national output. Currently, the operating rate of local enterprises is generally lower than in previous years, and the overall operating rate is about 60%. However, the cumulative output of aluminum strips and foils from January to August is 4.023 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in August is 3.7% [38].
新能源、有色专题：河南铝产业调研
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-14 08:32