国信期货原油专题报告：供应过剩压力显现，油价重心持续下移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, OPEC+ shifted its crude oil production policy from "production cuts to maintain prices" to "increasing production to seize market share", and the change in OPEC+ production policy has become an important event to continuously track on the supply side of the oil market [1][16]. - After the end of the peak oil consumption season in September, demand declined, but the pressure of oversupply was not fully apparent. With the weakening demand and the pressure of OPEC+ to increase production, the expectation of global crude oil oversupply may gradually be confirmed starting from October, the pressure of crude oil inventory accumulation will increase, commercial crude oil inventory may turn into an accumulation trend, and the pressure of global crude oil oversupply will gradually emerge, and the center of oil prices may continue to decline [1][16]. - The signing of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has eased the situation in the Middle East, and combined with the recent escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, international oil prices have continued to weaken recently [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Crude Oil Supply Exceeds Demand - In September 2025, global crude oil supply was 108.49 million barrels per day, and demand was 104.61 million barrels per day, showing a supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the expected global oil supply is 107.31 million barrels per day, and the expected demand is 104.72 million barrels per day, also with supply exceeding demand [4]. - OPEC expects that with strong economic activity boosting transportation fuel demand, global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year. In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, and OPEC+ members' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels [6]. - Before the National Day, the market expected that Saudi Arabia would lead OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 - 500,000 barrels per day, but at the October 5th OPEC+ meeting, it was decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same as in October, which was lower than market expectations [8][9]. 3.2 Record - High US Crude Oil Production - As of the week ending October 3, the daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, an increase of 124,000 barrels from the previous week and 229,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week average daily production as of October 3 was 13.529 million barrels, 1.9% higher than the same period last year [10]. - As of the week ending October 3, the number of active US oil - drilling rigs was 422, 2 less than the previous week and 57 less than the same period last year [10]. 3.3 Fourth - Quarter Crude Oil Enters the Off - Season of Consumption - Due to possible increases in OPEC+ production, reduced crude oil processing by global refineries during maintenance, and seasonal decline in future demand, oil inventory accumulation will accelerate. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventory increased by 3.72 million barrels from the previous week [12]. 3.4 Escalation of Sino - US Trade Frictions - In September and October 2025, the US imposed export controls on Chinese enterprises, and China also took counter - measures such as export controls and antitrust investigations. The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions may have a negative impact on the global economy and suppress global crude oil demand growth [15]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - The change in OPEC+ production policy, the end of the peak consumption season, the decline in refinery demand, and the pressure of OPEC+ to increase production may lead to a gradual confirmation of the oversupply situation starting from October, an increase in inventory accumulation pressure, and a possible further decline in the center of oil prices [1][16].