瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On October 14, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,153.5, up 0.74%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1,422, equivalent to 1,202 on the futures market. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20 to 23 in Beijing. During the National Day, some regional coal mines carried out maintenance, leading to a slight decline in production and an increase in mine - end inventory. The cumulative growth rate of imports has been declining for three consecutive months, while inventory has been rising for three consecutive weeks with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 14, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,653.5, up 0.74%. The price increase of coke was implemented on October 1. The World Steel Association released a new steel short - term demand forecast report on October 13, predicting a 1.3% mild rebound in global steel demand in 2026. In terms of fundamentals, on the demand side, the current hot metal output is 2.4181 million tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons, with hot metal remaining in a high - level oscillation. The total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1,153.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1,654.50 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 826,618.00 lots, up 25,658.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume: 50,460.00 lots, up 487.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 JM contracts: - 92,926.00 lots, down 4,051.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 J contracts: - 4,449.00 lots, down 264.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 80.50 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 142.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 200.00 sheets, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts: 2,190.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 1,030.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 151.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.50 US dollars; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1,620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1,450.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; J main contract basis: 65.50 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 296.50 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 25.70 million tons per day, down 1.10 million tons; the refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 280.20 million tons per week, down 22.60 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.35%, down 0.02%; raw coal output: 39,049.70 million tons per month, up 951.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4,600.30 million tons per month, up 326.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 183.90 million tons, down 10.30 million tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports: 507.47 million tons per week, up 5.00 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports: 252.59 million tons per week, down 4.00 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 959.06 million tons per week, down 78.65 million tons; the total inventory of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 63.84 million tons per week, up 1.53 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 781.13 million tons per week, down 6.93 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 650.82 million tons per week, down 12.58 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.66 days per week, down 0.07 days; the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills: 11.42 days per week, down 0.18 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 1,016.22 million tons per month, up 55.50 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 55.00 million tons per month, down 34.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal production: 3,696.86 million tons per month, down 392.52 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 75.18%, up 0.05% [2]. - Coke production: 4,259.70 million tons per month, up 74.20 million tons; the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants: 9 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 84.25%, down 0.02%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.53%, down 0.10% [2]. - Crude steel production: 7,736.86 million tons per month, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to September, China exported 87.955 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, with 10.465 million tons exported in September [2]. - The World Steel Association predicted that global steel demand will remain flat in 2025 at about 1.75 billion tons and will have a 1.3% mild rebound in 2026 to 1.772 billion tons [2]. - From January to September, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investment of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, and the annual investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time [2]. - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to develop new - quality productivity, accelerate the R & D and industrialization of new building materials, develop intelligent construction, and establish three systems for housing inspection, housing safety management funds, and housing insurance [2]. - Four mediating countries signed the "Comprehensive Document of the Gaza Cease - fire Agreement" [2].