Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 08:40Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation shows that China's September exports and imports in US dollars exceeded expectations, with strong growth in industrial robots and wind power exports. The US threatened to impose additional tariffs in retaliation for China's rare - earth controls. Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees slowed, while sulfuric acid prices rose significantly, giving smelters large profit margins and increasing production enthusiasm. New production capacities were released, pushing refined zinc production to a high level. However, the tight overseas zinc ore situation led to an expansion of import losses, a decrease in imported zinc inflows, and an expected opening of the export window. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect was weak, the real - estate sector was a drag, and policy support in the automotive and home - appliance sectors brought some bright spots. Domestic social inventories increased during the holiday, while LME inventories continued to decline, and the spot premium rose. Technically, with stable positions and falling prices, there was a divergence in long - short trading. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 22,220 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread was - 20 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 3,012 dollars/ton, up 27.5 dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest was 210,056 lots, down 2,545 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 7,712 lots, up 1,874 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 58,494 tons, down 1,120 tons. The SHFE inventory was 106,950 tons, up 8,940 tons; the LME inventory was 37,475 tons, down 475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,150 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract was - 10 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread was 201.6 dollars/ton, up 101.15 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons. The global zinc ore production was 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume was 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory was 153,600 tons, up 17,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets were 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons. The new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, up 45.9501 million square meters; the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. The automobile production was 2.7524 million vehicles, up 242,400 vehicles; the air - conditioner production was 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc was 15.73%, down 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc was 15.73%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 9.42%, up 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 10.98%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In September, China's exports in US dollars increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. Exports of industrial robots and wind power were strong. Imports of soybeans and iron ore reached record highs for the same period, rare - earth exports decreased by 31% month - on - month, and copper imports reached a new high for the year. The US threatened to impose additional tariffs in retaliation for China's rare - earth controls, and China's Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port dues on US ships, starting on October 14, 2025 [3].