Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for the oil and fat market is for a volatile trend. When there are significant price corrections, investors can consider buying at low prices. The report also analyzes the fundamentals of different oils and provides corresponding trading strategies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot prices and basis: The closing prices of 2601 contracts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 8240 (down 28), 9330 (down 34), and 9959 (down 63) respectively. The basis for each oil in different regions shows various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3]. - Monthly spreads: For the 1 - 5 monthly spreads, soybean oil is 222 (down 14), palm oil is 108 (down 32), and rapeseed oil is 495 (up 57) [3]. - Cross - variety spreads: In the 01 contract, the Y - P spread is - 1090 (up 6), the OI - Y spread is 1719 (down 35), the OI - P spread is 629 (down 29), and the oil - meal ratio is 2.84 (up 0.02) [3]. - Import profits: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 159, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 815 [3]. - Weekly commercial inventories: In the 41st week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 126.5, 54.8, and 57.1 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International market: Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure domestic supply for biodiesel production. The plan to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 may reduce global edible oil supply [5]. - Domestic market: - Palm oil: As of October 10, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons (0.83%) compared to the previous week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and long positions can be considered on significant corrections [6]. - Soybean oil: The soybean crushing volume and开机率 decreased last week. As of October 10, 2025, the soybean oil commercial inventory increased by 1.64 million tons (1.31%) compared to the previous week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and long positions can be considered on significant corrections [6][9]. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed crushing volume and开机率 decreased last week. As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons. The import profit inversion has expanded. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to buying and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short - term. Long positions can be considered on significant corrections [11]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc., to help analyze the market trends of oils and fats [14][17].
银河期货油脂日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-14 08:50