港股估值底层逻辑再思考：港股风险溢价 2.0

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a new understanding of the equity risk premium (ERP), suggesting that it is significantly influenced by short-term growth expectations, particularly the nominal GDP growth rate in USD terms [1][2]. - The analysis identifies a strong correlation between the Hang Seng Index's ERP and the short-term growth rate of China's nominal GDP, with a correlation coefficient of -0.8, indicating that predicting ERP is effectively predicting short-term growth [2][4]. - The report outlines three phases of the current bull market in Hong Kong stocks, driven by factors such as the recovery of US dollar liquidity, changes in domestic policy, and expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the US government [3][4]. Summary by Sections Risk Premium: A Short-Term Growth Indicator - The report revisits the concept of ERP, previously viewed as a stable emotional indicator, and suggests that recent market conditions have led to a re-evaluation of its significance [1][14]. - It highlights that the ERP has broken historical lower limits, particularly in the context of the Hang Seng Index, which reflects a shift in nominal growth expectations [1][19]. Direct Derivation of Short-Term Growth - The report breaks down China's nominal GDP growth into three components: real GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate changes, emphasizing the importance of these factors in predicting short-term growth [45][46]. - It notes that while real GDP growth is a primary driver, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations have become increasingly significant in recent years [46][51]. Reconstruction of Short-Term Growth Framework - The report proposes a new framework for predicting short-term growth by focusing on the relationship between China's real GDP and the value of the US dollar, suggesting that these factors are more relevant than previously considered [69][75]. - It concludes that the value of Chinese assets in USD terms is primarily determined by China's real GDP and the ratio of US dollar supply to US real GDP, simplifying the predictive model for nominal GDP growth [75].