瑞达期货国债期货日报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's risk aversion sentiment has cooled as the US has signaled a willingness to engage in rational negotiations on China-US trade policies. The probability of additional tariffs being implemented in this round is low, considering the evolution of tariff policies in April this year. The ongoing suspension of the US government and the delay in the release of key economic data have left the market without clear short - term guidance. The cooling of the US labor market has strengthened the market's expectation that the Fed will maintain its rate - cut path. The performance of the bond market will continue to be affected by the progress of the new regulations for public bond funds, the trend of the fundamentals, and changes in market risk appetite. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will maintain wide - range fluctuations. The strategy is to wait and see and closely monitor policy trends and market sentiment changes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力合约收盘价108.170，涨幅0.11%，成交量125,811，增加39,884；TF主力合约收盘价105.775，涨幅0.1%，成交量73,462，增加13,182；TS主力合约收盘价102.384，涨幅0.02%，成交量32,167，增加509；TL主力合约收盘价114.760，涨幅0.34%，成交量155,935，增加31,191 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差0.35，增加0.02；T2512 - 2603价差0.31，减少0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.11，减少0.01；TS2512 - 2603价差0.09，基本持平；T12 - TL12价差 - 6.59，减少0.22；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.40，减少0.02；TS12 - T12价差 - 5.79，减少0.09；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.39，减少0.08 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量233,798，增加10,284；前20名多头持仓216,176，增加7,496；前20名空头持仓225,250，增加11,335；前20名净空仓9,074，增加3,839；TF主力持仓量136,437，增加8,641；前20名多头持仓124,195，增加6,589；前20名空头持仓139,734，增加8,828；前20名净空仓15,539，增加2,239；TS主力持仓量65,965，增加88；前20名多头持仓54,896，增加978；前20名空头持仓57,180，增加369；前20名净空仓2,284，减少609；TL主力持仓量151,894，增加6,917；前20名多头持仓134,318，增加5,747；前20名空头持仓151,510，增加6,992；前20名净空仓17,192，增加1,245 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB(6y）净价106.3633，增加0.1972；250018.IB(6y)净价99.0955，增加0.1132；2500801.IB(4y）净价99.3468，增加0.0219；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，增加0.0342；250012.IB(1.7y)净价99.9528，增加0.0041；220016.IB(2y)净价101.8889，减少0.0045；210005.IB(17y)净价129.6537，增加0.4572；220008.IB(18y)净价121.7227，增加0.2815 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1年期收益率1.3650%，增加1.00bp；3年期收益率1.5085%，减少0.90bp；5年期收益率1.5875%，减少0.75bp；7年期收益率1.7000%，减少0.50bp；10年期收益率1.7610%，减少1.40bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.2904%，增加1.04bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3150%，增加0.10bp；银质押7天利率1.4000%，减少6.00bp；Shibor7天利率1.4230%，减少2.40bp；银质押14天利率1.4433%，减少4.67bp；Shibor14天利率1.4450%，减少2.10bp [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1年期LPR利率3.00%，持平；5年期LPR利率3.5%，持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模910亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，到期规模0亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 中国9月出口（以美元计价）同比增长8.3%，进口增长7.4%，贸易顺差904.5亿美元；9月稀土出口4000.3吨，进口6864.7吨；1 - 9月稀土出口48355.7吨；美国对中国海事、物流和造船业开展301调查，中方将韩华海洋株式会社5家美国相关子公司列入反制清单 [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - 10月16日02:00美联储公布经济状况褐皮书；10月16日20:30公布美国9月零售销售月率 [3]