政策驱动盈利改善，独立储能加速放量

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic independent energy storage has entered a rapid development stage, gradually taking over from new - energy - paired storage and becoming a new driving force for the growth of the energy storage market. Its revenue comes from power spot market arbitrage, auxiliary services, and capacity - based electricity price compensation [4]. - The capacity - based electricity price compensation presents in three ways: discharge - based compensation (e.g., Inner Mongolia, with an IRR of up to 10% and capacity compensation accounting for nearly 50% of income in the first ten years), power - and - duration - based compensation (e.g., Gansu, with an IRR of up to 14% and capacity compensation accounting for 31% of income), and capacity leasing (e.g., Yunnan, with an IRR of up to 8% and capacity leasing accounting for 72% of income). In these three modes, the IRR of representative provinces can meet the requirements of central and local state - owned enterprises [4]. - The domestic energy storage will maintain high growth. Reasons include: the winning bid scale has increased beyond expectations (the total winning bid volume of energy storage projects from January to September 2025 reached 318.4GWh, a year - on - year increase of 190%); policy support has been continuously strengthened (the installed capacity of new - type energy storage is expected to reach over 180 million kilowatts by the end of 2027, and the capacity - based electricity price mechanism in various provinces is expected to be further promoted); and the power marketization has accelerated (the auxiliary service market is gradually improving, and the full entry of new energy into the market will further widen the peak - valley price difference) [4]. - It is estimated that the domestic installed capacity will reach 122GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 14%; the new installed capacity in 2026 will be 159GWh, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Overseas, the traditional markets of the US and Europe are growing steadily, and emerging countries such as the Middle East, Australia, and India are booming. It is expected that the global new energy storage installed capacity will be 256GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 35%, and 351GWh in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 37% [4]. - Due to the US "Build Back Better" Act and optimistic expectations from domestic power market policies such as capacity subsidies, the inventory coefficient for energy storage cells is raised to 2.1. It is expected that the shipment volume will be 520GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 56%, and 698GWh in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 34% [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Independent Energy Storage Development Status - Introduction: Independent energy storage is a storage facility independent of the power generation and user sides, participating in the power market independently. Its application scenarios include power peak shaving, frequency regulation, and grid black - start. The system mainly consists of battery packs, battery management systems, energy management systems, and power conversion systems [9]. - Development Process: Driven by mandatory energy - storage - pairing policies, independent energy storage developed rapidly. After the implementation of Document No. 136, new - energy - paired storage gradually withdrew, and independent energy storage has dominated the bidding market since February this year [11]. - Technology, Owners, and Regional Distribution: Lithium - ion batteries dominate the independent energy storage market, with a 95% installed - capacity share as of the end of June 2025. The development owners are mainly central and local state - owned energy enterprises, and some private new - energy companies are also entering the field. Shandong, Jiangsu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia have installed capacities exceeding 10GWh, and the development depends on local policies and market mechanisms [16]. Independent Energy Storage Profit Model and Revenue Calculation - Profit Model - Price Difference Arbitrage: With the increase in new - energy installation and the full entry of new energy into the market, the peak - valley price difference in the power spot market has widened, and energy storage can achieve arbitrage by charging at low - price times and discharging at high - price times. Location is crucial for arbitrage revenue [19]. - Profit Model - Auxiliary Services: The "Special Action Plan for the Large - scale Construction of New - type Energy Storage" encourages energy storage to participate in the auxiliary service market, mainly the frequency - regulation market at present. Different provinces have different price - setting mechanisms for frequency regulation [22]. - Profit Model - Capacity - Based Electricity Price: The policy promotes the improvement of the capacity - based electricity price mechanism. Different provinces have different compensation standards, presenting in three main compensation modes [23]. - Discharge - Based Compensation: Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang adopt this mode. In Inner Mongolia, the compensation standard is 0.35 yuan/kWh for projects started and completed before June 30, with a 10 - year subsidy period. Without considering auxiliary service income, the IRR can reach 10% [25]. - Power - and - Duration - Based Compensation: Most provinces with capacity - based electricity price policies use this mode. Taking Gansu as an example, with the "same compensation for thermal and energy storage" mechanism, the IRR of independent energy - storage projects can reach 13.7% [27]. - Capacity Leasing Model: Mainly implemented in Yunnan, this model requires new - energy projects to have a certain energy - storage capacity or pay capacity fees. The estimated IRR of projects under this mechanism is 7.8% [29]. Energy Storage Demand Outlook - Domestic: From January to August, the new installed capacity of domestic energy storage was 28.69GW/75.94GWh, a year - on - year increase of 41.5%. It is estimated that the installed capacity will reach 122GWh in 2025 and 159GWh in 2026. The growth is driven by the over - expected increase in winning bid scale, continuous strengthening of policy support, and acceleration of power marketization [33]. - Global: The domestic demand is rising, and traditional and emerging overseas markets are also growing. It is expected that the global new energy - storage installed capacity will be 256GWh in 2025 and 351GWh in 2026. The energy - storage cell shipment volume is expected to be 520GWh in 2025 and 698GWh in 2026 [39].