Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 10:13Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SH2601 contract of caustic soda is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2501. The high warehouse receipts still suppress the futures price, and the market sentiment is weak due to the continuous Sino - US trade disputes [3]. - The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories is relatively high during the holiday, but the planned maintenance of North and East China devices this week may partially relieve the supply pressure. The demand for caustic soda from alumina enterprises is expected to remain stable in the short - term, while non - aluminum downstream industries lack demand improvement signals and are expected to maintain rigid procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may ease. There are new alumina device investments from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, which gives an improvement expectation for the long - term supply and demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2428 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May are 2428 yuan/ton and 2533 yuan/ton respectively, down 36 yuan and 30 yuan. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4532 hands, down 3175 hands. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 329012 hands, an increase of 39319 hands, and the position is 111010 hands, an increase of 1784 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, up 31.25 yuan, and the basis is 166 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest are both 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 175 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 0 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali is 341 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories in China was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% week - on - week to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% week - on - week to 66.63% [3].