Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 10:11Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - On October 14, 2025, the RB2601 contract remained weak. The tariff disturbances will continue to affect market sentiment in the short - term. The weekly output of rebar remains low, with the capacity utilization rate falling below 45%. Terminal demand is average, and inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in the oscillation, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,061.00 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the position volume is 1,991,462 lots, up 38,714 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 84,547 lots, down 17,978 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 53 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE is 290,165 tons, up 9,708 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 180 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,240.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,323 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,150.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 179.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 80.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 791.00 yuan/wet ton, up 4.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,940.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 140.2867 million tons, up 313,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants is 425,500 tons, up 34,900 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills is 6.5057 million tons, down 125,400 tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan is 1.276 million tons, up 79,400 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.53%, down 0.10% [2] 4. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills is 2.034 million tons, down 36,200 tons. The capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills is 44.59%, down 0.80%. The inventory of sample steel mills is 1.9234 million tons, up 334,300 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.673 million tons, up 239,600 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 64.58%, down 1.05%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons. The net export volume of steel is 991,700 tons, up 90,700 tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 0.50%, down 1.10%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 12.90%, down 0.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 2.00%, down 1.20%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 643.109 million square meters, down 4.378 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 39.801 million square meters, down 4.595 million square meters. The unsold housing area is 40.229 million square meters, up 307,000 square meters [2] 6. Industry News - In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output compared to the previous period; 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons, a 3.2% increase; 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons, an 8.5% decrease. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said on Monday that she favors two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. The Ministry of Transport will start charging a special port fee for US - related ships from October 14, 2025 [2]