Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 10:11Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the weakening demand for aquaculture due to temperature decline, and the relatively abundant supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market should continue to focus on China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the de - stocking mode, which will support its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. The price of rapeseed oil has adjusted from its recent high, and the market should continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9959 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2348 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 495 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 57 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 299,838 lots, down 3774 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 370,714 lots, up 6791 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 12,769 lots, down 2747 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 84,037 lots, down 15,155 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7590, down 557; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 9089, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 623.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.3 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5112 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,273.75 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7413.77 yuan/ton, down 26.21 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4.09, up 0.06 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 82 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 500 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 50,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 3.73%, down 1.6% [2]. - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 146,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is - 16,700 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 183,100 tons, down 15,300 tons; the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 509,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 509,000 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 279,000 tons, down 6900 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 28,000 tons, down 7500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 225,000 tons, up 14,000 tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2200 tons, down 2960 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 10,900 tons, down 13,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons; the monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.506 million tons, up 300,000 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.3%, up 0.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.31%, up 0.69% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.93%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.8%, down 0.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.98%, up 0.55%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.98%, up 0.53% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.16%, down 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.84%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Monday [2]. - Due to generally favorable weather conditions, the harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues to constrain its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the pressure on US soybean exports remains. The USDA quarterly inventory report shows that as of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop soybeans in the US is 316 million bushels, 8% lower than the same period last year and lower than market expectations [2]. - The Canadian government's statistics show that the estimated output of Canadian rapeseed is 20 million tons, the highest level since 2018. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvest season, and the bumper harvest is gradually being realized, which exerts some pressure on the price of Canadian rapeseed [2]. - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy has made new progress, which is beneficial to the palm oil market. However, MPOB data shows that as of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% from the previous month to 2.36 million tons, has increased for seven consecutive months, and is close to the highest level in about two years [2].