生猪日报：出栏继续维持高位，现货压力增加-20251014

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current high level of hog supply and large body weight continue to exert pressure on the market, with subsequent spot prices likely to decline, and the futures market also under pressure, showing short - term oscillations [2][4] - The short - term improvement in spot prices is mainly due to the entry of secondary fattening, but the overall fundamental improvement is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Content Spot Market - Today's hog spot prices showed a slight rebound, with the average price remaining unchanged at 10.52 yuan. Among them, prices in Henan decreased by 0.05 yuan to 11.19 yuan, while those in Liaoning increased by 0.13 yuan to 11.16 yuan. The overall supply pressure is high, with large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume increasing, and the overall slaughter volume remaining high. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers for slaughter is expected to remain relatively stable, and the supply of large - weight hogs is abundant [2] Futures Market - Hog futures prices rebounded slightly. LH01 rose 270 to 12405, and LH11 rose 325 to 11450. The far - month futures rebound space is limited due to relatively low costs and overall supply pressure. The current price is short - term oscillating, with subsequent pressure still existing [2][4] Sow/Piglet Market - This week, the piglet price was 173 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from last week, and the sow price was 1545 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan from last week [2] Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was - 152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 47.23 yuan from the previous value, and the profit for purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, a decrease of 41.63 yuan from the previous value [2] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased by 489 to 159778 heads, and the price difference between large and small hogs continued to rebound, but the supply of large - weight hogs remained high [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for near - month contracts - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]