银河期货粕类日报-20251014

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - October 14, 2025: Macro Impact Reduces, Market Drops Significantly" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Market - Soybean Meal: The 01 contract closed at 2902, down 30; 05 contract at 2728, down 18; 09 contract at 2844, down 14. Spot basis varied in different regions [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The 01 contract closed at 2348, down 44; 05 contract at 2291, down 24; 09 contract at 2380, down 23. Spot basis also changed in different regions [4]. Spread - Soybean Meal Spread: 15 - spread was 174, down 12; 59 - spread was - 116, down 4; 91 - spread was - 58, up 16 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal Spread: 15 - spread was 57, down 20; 59 - spread was - 89, down 1; 91 - spread was 32, up 21 [4]. Cross - Variety Spread - Soy - Rapeseed 01 Spread: 554, up from 540; 09 spread was 464, up from 455. Oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.839, up from 2.820 [4]. Spot Spread - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal: 414, down 4; Rapeseed Meal - Sunflower Meal was 260, down 20; Soybean Meal - Sunflower Meal was 624, up 6 [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Market - The US has suspended report publishing, with limited new information. Old - crop ending stocks were slightly raised, and new - crop supply increased slightly due to a small cut in yield but an increase in planted area. The market is mainly affected by exports [5]. South American Market - South American old - crop is in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about exports [5]. International Market - International soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in major产区' crushing volume, while imports of major importers increase slightly [5]. Domestic Market - Soybean Meal: As of October 10, soybean crushing was 1.2893 million tons, with an operating rate of 35.99%. Soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, up 6.37% from last week and 14.29% year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, down 9.26% from last week but up 6.17% year - on - year [7]. - Rapeseed Meal: As of October 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. Rapeseed inventory was 18,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 11,500 tons, down 15,300 tons [7]. Group 4: Macro Analysis - Sino - US communication has reduced trade conflict concerns, but the Madrid negotiation provided little clear information on beans. With China's decreasing demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the upside of the domestic soybean meal market is limited [8]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The market is falling. Argentina's increased exports have squeezed US soybeans' export space, but there is still support for US soybeans. The upside of US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. Domestic soybean meal supply is relatively loose, and the pressure may continue. Rapeseed meal has low inventory but weak demand, and its price lacks volatility [9]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Single - Side: Hold short positions in far - month soybean meal contracts. - Arbitrage: Long M11 and short M01. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle structure [10]