Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 10:01Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The domestic sugar market has a significant increase in inventory compared to the previous season, with the combined industrial inventory of Guangxi and Yunnan reaching 646,800 tons as of September, a year - on - year increase of over 60%. With the start of production in sugar factories in the northern sugar beet producing areas and the expected arrival of 460,000 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar in September, the supply will gradually increase. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract should be treated as short - term bearish [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,397 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; the main contract position is 422,156 lots, up 32,133 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 8,488, down 193; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,435 lots, up 6,829 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar is 0, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,426 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,621 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,647 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price in Nanning is 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares; the national total sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the national total sugar sales volume is 9.9998 million tons, up 449,800 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.98%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, up 90,000 tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, down 498,200 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,257 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 62 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,237 yuan/ton; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 36 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [2] 产业情况 - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,257 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 62 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,237 yuan/ton; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 36 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 454,100 tons, up 44,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.7758 million tons, down 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.31%, up 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.32%, up 0.14 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.89%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.69%, up 0.06 percentage points [2] Industry News - India exported 7.75 million tons of sugar from October 2024 to September 2025. Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 225,200 tons, a 33% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 169,500 tons in October last year. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.49 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at 15.61 cents per pound due to the prospect of oversupply [2]