瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of EB2511 dropped 2.53% to close at 6,544 yuan/ton. Last week, two sets of Zhejiang Petrochemical's units restarted, and the load of a unit in South China increased, leading to a month - on - month rise in styrene production and capacity utilization. The downstream operating rates mostly declined, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreased month - on - month. Factory and port inventories decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure has dropped from a high level. Affected by the decline in pure benzene and ethylene prices, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased month - on - month last week, but the weak styrene spot market led to an insignificant repair of non - integrated profits. Recently, the shutdown and maintenance of units in Jingbosidarei, Anhui Jiaxi, and Guangzhou Petrochemical partially offset the impact of the restart of two sets of Zhejiang Petrochemical's units. The production and capacity utilization of styrene are expected to increase slightly this week. In October, 1.2 million tons of styrene production capacity is planned to be put into operation, while the production of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS is concentrated from November to December. The mismatch in upstream and downstream production may deepen the supply - demand contradiction. Low downstream profits and the accumulation of finished product inventories in some industries limit the growth space of the demand side. The high inventory pressure may maintain a slow destocking trend. Recently, the US remarks on tariffs on China have softened, and international oil prices rebounded slightly yesterday. Affected by the continuous Sino - US trade dispute, market sentiment is weak, and industrial products mostly declined during the day. Technically, the daily K - line of the EB2511 contract previously broke below the lower Bollinger Band, and the green bar of the MACD widened during the day, indicating that the downward trend may continue [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active styrene contract was 6,544 yuan/ton, down 146 yuan; the trading volume was 219,541 lots, down 5,144 lots; the open interest was 319,760 lots, up 1,239 lots. The net long position of the top 20 holders was - 3,028 lots, up 6,636 lots. The 11 - month contract closing price was 6,544 yuan/ton, down 146 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,020 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 1,405 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 828 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6,715 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan), 6,635 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan), and 6,705 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 786 US dollars/ton (unchanged); the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 781 US dollars/ton (unchanged); the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 716 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 695.86 US dollars/ton (unchanged); the FOB price in the US Gulf was 254 cents/gallon (unchanged); the FOB price in Rotterdam was 654 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5,650 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), 5,630 yuan/ton (down 90 yuan), and 5,510 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 73.61%, up 2.37%; the national styrene inventory was 193,863 tons, down 9,411 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 196,500 tons, down 5,400 tons; the trade inventory was 121,500 tons, up 5,100 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 40.74% (down 2.37%), 72.5% (up 1.5%), 54.6% (down 1.7%), 20% (down 7%), and 70.05% (down 0.27%) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, China's styrene factory output was 347,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%; the capacity utilization rate was 73.61%, a month - on - month increase of 2.37%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased 1.4% month - on - month to 239,800 tons. As of October 9th, the styrene factory inventory was 193,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.63%. As of October 13th, the styrene inventory in East China ports was 196,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67%; the inventory in South China ports was 30,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59% [2]