瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains negative, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. Although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Industrial silicon saw a supplementary decline today, but later supply is expected to decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,520 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the main contract position was 162,674 lots, down 3,048 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -42,519 lots, up 7,966 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 50,854 lots, up 573 lots; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was -360 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was -360 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 880 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - Industrial silicon monthly output was 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; industrial silicon monthly imports were 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; industrial silicon monthly exports were 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons [2] 下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 70.52%, down 0.07%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons [2] Industry News - On October 13, the Beijing Market Supervision and Administration Bureau announced the release of 6 green and low - carbon local standards to help Beijing become an international green economy benchmark city, covering key areas such as carbon emissions, energy consumption limits, resource recycling, and energy metering system construction. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, affected by the dry season, there are expectations of production cuts in the southwest region of industrial silicon. Some enterprises are under pressure from profit losses and have put production cuts on the agenda. Most manufacturers in the southwest said they will operate until the end of October and have no plans to resume production thereafter. The northwest region has an electricity price advantage, and manufacturers' operations are stable. In the Yili region, operations are relatively optimistic, and large factories have expectations of resuming production. Although the operating rate has decreased, the overall situation of oversupply has not improved. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields [2]