金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling. The PTA futures follow the cost - end to fluctuate and decline. The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate mainly affected by the cost - end in the short term [3]. - For MEG, starting from October, the supply - demand pattern is expected to shift to inventory accumulation, with continuous inventory - building pressure in the far - month. The market is under obvious pressure, and the short - term MEG market is expected to be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents PTA - Main Contract: On October 14, the basis of the main contract TA2601 was - 75 yuan/ton, down - 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4400 yuan/ton, down - 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: The cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.46%, up 1.57% from the previous day. There are many overhauls and changes of devices under low processing fees recently. The PTA factory inventory days in the week are 4.22 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 days [3]. - Main Force Movements: The short - side main force increased positions [3]. - Trend: The PTA futures market opened low and moved low following the cost - end. The restart and load - reduction of PTA's own devices are concurrent, and the new production capacity is put into operation with a delay, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly [3]. MEG - Main Contract: On October 14, the basis of the main contract eg2601 was 81 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4142 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - Fundamentals: The cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling, and the coal price is stable. The MEG futures follow the cost - end to fluctuate and decline. The total MEG port inventory in East China is 44.51 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.08 tons [4]. - Main Force Movements: The short - side main force reduced positions [4]. - Expectation: Starting from October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to shift to inventory accumulation, with continuous inventory - building pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under obvious pressure. Terminal foreign trade orders are still few, the profit margin of the domestic market is continuously narrowing, and the industry is under overall pressure [4].