当前供需同步转弱压力仍在，期价中期仍有望探底回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pressure of simultaneous weakening of supply and demand persists, but the futures price is still expected to bottom out and rebound in the medium term [1] - In the third quarter, rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, basically erasing the gains from the "anti - involution" speculation. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to decline, demand will seasonally weaken, and inventory is expected to continue to fall, but at a relatively slow pace [8] - From October to November, the market is dominated by weak reality, and prices tend to fluctuate and decline. Starting from December, the market is dominated by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [8] - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and switch to going long on dips in the medium - term if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views - Market Trend in Q3: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell. In early July, due to the "anti - involution" policy, industrial products rose significantly, but later, affected by high prices and demand concerns, prices declined from August to September [8][9] - Supply: Marginal profit is close to the break - even point, so steel mills have strong motivation to reduce production. In November, environmental protection restrictions may increase, and the "anti - involution" policy may be phased out, leading to a decline in supply. However, a decrease in production may cause a decline in iron ore and coke prices, resulting in a "negative feedback" cycle [8] - Demand: Downstream demand will seasonally weaken in the fourth quarter, reaching a low point during the Spring Festival next year. Before December, the market anticipates the weak demand in the off - season, pressuring the futures price. After December, the market is optimistic about the peak - season demand next year, boosting the futures price [8] - Inventory: Although the current inventory is relatively high, it is likely to continue to decline in the fourth quarter, but at a slow pace. If inventory rises, the price of rebar and hot - rolled coils will face pressure, forcing steel mills to cut production. The total inventory will seasonally rise before the Spring Festival, but the market will focus on the rising speed [8] - Market Judgment: From October to November, the market is affected by weak reality, and prices tend to fall. Starting from December, the market is driven by strong expectations, and the futures price is expected to rebound. The switch in rhythm depends on technical patterns, policies, and supply - demand conditions [8] - Unilateral Strategy: Short - term trading suggests shorting on rallies. In the medium - term, if a clear bottom pattern appears, switch to going long on dips and hold the position until after the Spring Festival next year [8] - Arbitrage Strategy: Consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8] 3.2 Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils Spot and Futures Market in Q3 - Price Trend: Rebar and hot - rolled coils first rose and then fell, returning to the level at the beginning of July, erasing the "anti - involution" gains. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased, with the increase in rebar's basis being more significant [8][9][14] - Spread Analysis: The spread between different contracts, regions, and varieties showed differentiation. The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of rebar decreased, while the spread between the 10 and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coils increased. The spread of the 10 - contract of the coil - to - rebar spread reached a record high, while the 01 and 05 contracts were within a reasonable range [22][25][28] - Profit Analysis: The profit of upstream and downstream processing slightly improved, which may be related to the "anti - involution" policy in the third quarter. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level and may rise, while the ratio of rebar to coke has declined and may continue to fall [30][33] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis of Steel in Q4 - Supply: Steel production has been gradually decreasing, mainly due to the off - season consumption, the National Day holiday, and the "anti - involution" policy. The production of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills has decreased. The production of iron water remains high, but steel mills are likely to cut production in the future due to falling profits [36][38][47] - Demand: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils during the National Day holiday reached a record low in recent years. The recovery of steel demand after the holiday is not satisfactory. The real estate market is still under pressure, which drags down the demand for steel. However, steel exports increased in September, mainly driven by the high - speed growth of billet exports [54][55][58] - Inventory: The inventory of major steel products has increased rapidly, especially for hot - rolled coils and cold - rolled coils, which reached record highs in the same period, indicating that the supply of downstream industrial materials exceeds demand. In the fourth quarter, steel mills still face great pressure to reduce inventory, but inventory is likely to decline seasonally [68][73][76] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - Market Outlook: The Langer Iron and Steel PMI index indicates pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal patterns suggest that the market is likely to be weak first and then strong in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, the downward trend since August is expected to continue, but in the medium - term, the futures price may bottom out and rebound [79][83][87] - Investment Strategy: For short - term trading, short on rallies. For medium - term trading, go long on dips if a clear bottom pattern appears. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 01 contract on rallies [8][87]