有色金属周度观点-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - Emotions: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - Domestic Supply: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - Overseas: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - Trend: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Supply: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - Demand: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - Inventory: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - Trend: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - Spot and Futures: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - Demand: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - Trend: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - Supply: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - Demand: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - Trend: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Spot and Supply: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - Trend: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - Supply: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - Demand: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - Trend: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - Spot: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - Demand: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - Inventory: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - Trend: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - Demand: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - Inventory: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - Trend: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - Inventory: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - Trend: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - Strategy: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].