怎么看中美经贸摩擦再次加剧？

Group 1: Current Trade Tensions - Recent U.S. measures against China include a 50% tariff on cabinets and a 30% tariff on softwood furniture, effective from September 29[9] - China has announced export controls on rare earth materials, effective November 8, which could significantly impact U.S. industries reliant on these materials[10] - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese products starting November 1, escalating trade tensions ahead of the APEC meeting[11] Group 2: Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China Trade Relations - One scenario suggests a temporary easing of tensions, potentially leading to a phased agreement during or before the APEC meeting, though full cancellation of rare earth controls is unlikely[18] - An alternative scenario indicates that trade friction may escalate, reducing the likelihood of reaching an agreement and potentially leading to a spiral of conflict[19] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - As of September, China's exports reached $328.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, surpassing market expectations of 5.7%[21] - The U.S. unemployment rate has slightly increased from 4% to 4.3%, indicating potential economic strain[16] - Market sentiment may shift towards defensive assets if trade tensions escalate, with a potential decline in stock market performance[30]