Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. The price center of the contract moved down to around 14,850 yuan/ton during the session, and closed 0.97% lower at 14,845 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 15 yuan/ton. With the rubber market returning to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure and weak macro - expectations, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower on Tuesday. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,345 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,255 yuan/ton, closing 2.61% lower at 2,274 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 26 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. The contract price rose to a maximum of 456.1 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 447.6 yuan/barrel, closing 0.90% lower at 449.6 yuan/barrel. Due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government, Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war, the occurrence of systematic risks, the continued production increase of OPEC + oil - producing countries, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict in the Middle East leading to the return of geopolitical premiums, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons or 0.11% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 70,800 tons, an increase of 2.02%, and the general trade inventory was 385,200 tons, a decrease of 0.49%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period (September 26 - October 2, 2025) and a decrease of 36.62 percentage points year - on - year. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises arranged shutdown for maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. Some all - steel tire sample enterprises arranged shutdown for maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index expanded steadily, with the new order index of logistics enterprises at 53.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, and it remained in the high - prosperity range of over 52% for four consecutive months [10]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20%, laying a foundation for the annual total sales target of 1.1 million vehicles [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%, and a slight decrease of 1.39% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.033 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 113,700 tons, and a significant increase of 156,200 tons compared with 1.8768 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 5.03%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 87.97%, a week - on - week increase of 4.94 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 8.42% [11]. - As of October 10, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 146 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 127 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,700 tons, and a significant increase of 369,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 320,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels per day and a significant increase of 429,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.715 million barrels and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 763,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0 percentage point, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, and a slight increase of 5.7 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - Since October 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a downward trend under pressure, and the bullish power in the market has continued to shrink. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of government department data was postponed. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average in August. As of October 10, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 141,656 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 60,824 contracts and a significant decrease of 74,699 contracts or 34.53% compared with the average in September [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from the Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from the Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 300 yuan/ton | 14,845 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 595 yuan/ton | + 95 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | 2,274 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | + 26 yuan/ton | + 46 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 430.4 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 449.6 yuan/barrel | - 5.4 yuan/barrel | - 19.2 yuan/barrel | + 5.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - The report mentions related charts for rubber (such as rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, semi - steel tire operating rate trend), methanol (such as methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, Brent crude oil net position change), but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21]
橡胶甲醇原油：偏空情绪主导，能化弱势运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-14 11:56