铜产业链周度数据报告：避险需求与供应缺口共振，电解铜仍在市场高位维持强势-20251014

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current copper market is influenced by the resonance of the US government shutdown - driven risk - aversion demand and the supply shortage caused by the Indonesian mine accident. Copper prices are fluctuating around 85,000. Before these two factors reverse, it is not advisable to easily short copper prices. Although the tariff issue has re - emerged, the "TACO" trading logic still holds, and there is a possibility of a repeat of the Qingming Festival market. For the future market, the current price is high, but shorting should not be done lightly. If one wants to participate, a small - position long - term allocation can be considered [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - 1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price: The Indonesian mine accident has continuously pushed up the ore price. Charts show the market price of 20% copper concentrate, TC price, refined - scrap copper spot price, and copper import profit [7][9][11]. - 1.2 Electrolytic Copper Futures and Spot Market Price: The mine accident has become the dominant factor. Charts display the Shanghai copper futures - spot price, Yangshan Free Trade Zone premium to LME, and foreign copper futures prices [14][16][18]. - 1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data: Overseas long - position speculation has continued to increase. Charts present overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, LME copper fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position [19][20][24]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - 2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply: Charts show the net import volume of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and scrap copper [29][30][31]. - 2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory: Charts display the monthly production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, production cost and profit, and weekly inventory [34][35][36]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - 3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield: Charts show the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, US Treasury yield, and the relationship between the US benchmark interest rate and inflation [42][43][45]. - 3.2 US Economic Data: Charts present US employment data, market confidence index, social retail sales, and inventory data [51][52][53]. - 3.3 Chinese Economic Data: In July, new loans turned negative, and the PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Charts show China's M1, M2 growth rate, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, and other data [59][60][64]. - 3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data: The power grid and new energy sectors provide support. Charts show the monthly demand for electrolytic copper, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate [71][72][73].