Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The supply surplus expectation has been significantly strengthened, and oil prices have broken through the support level and declined. In the short term, oil prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, while in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. The ample idle capacity of OPEC+ and the restricted exports from Russia offset each other on the supply side, and the marginal boosting effect of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices has weakened. On the demand side, the increase in China's imports and OPEC's upward revision of demand expectations provide support, but the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes and concerns about the global economic slowdown suppress risk appetite. Technically, WTI and Brent may enter an oscillatory range after rebounding from the low level, but the insufficient inventory reduction and the expectation of future surplus may limit the rebound height [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary 1. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On October 13, WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices continued to decline, closing at $58.24/barrel and $62.09/barrel respectively. The SC crude oil futures price also dropped to 461.9 yuan/barrel. The spreads between domestic and foreign markets widened, with the SC-Brent spread rising to $2.75/barrel (from $0.88/barrel the previous day) and the SC-WTI spread expanding to $6.6/barrel (from $4.59/barrel the previous day), indicating that the decline of domestic crude oil futures was relatively smaller than that of foreign markets. The Brent-WTI spread strengthened slightly to $3.85/barrel, suggesting a relatively tight supply-demand structure in the European market. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread remained in a contango structure (-2.3 yuan/barrel), implying pressure on near-term contracts [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: In September, the oil exports of the Caspian Pipeline increased by 9% month-on-month to 6.6 million tons. Saudi Aramco reiterated that its maximum sustainable production capacity is 12 million barrels per day, and the production cost is only $3/barrel, indicating that the core OPEC+ oil-producing countries still have flexible production-increasing capabilities. However, due to the refinery attacks in Russia, its refined oil exports in September decreased by 17.1% month-on-month to 7.58 million tons, which may indirectly limit its crude oil processing volume. The drone attack on the Crimean oil terminal by Ukraine has intensified the supply disruption risk in the Black Sea region [3]. - Demand Side: The OPEC monthly report raised the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3 million barrels per day (previously 1.29 million barrels per day) and maintained the growth expectation of 1.38 million barrels per day for 2026. The CEO of Saudi Aramco said that the demand growth will be strong in the next two years (1.2 - 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025). China's net oil imports in October increased by 370,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 12.46 million barrels per day [4]. - Inventory Side: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 31,990 tons to 45,800 tons in a single day, which may reflect the rising demand for refinery pick-up. The warehouse receipts of crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged, indicating limited short-term delivery willingness. The US commercial crude oil data has not been updated, and attention should be paid to the subsequent EIA report [5]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and bottom out, while in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. The ample idle capacity of OPEC+ (stable Saudi production capacity) and the restricted exports from Russia offset each other on the supply side, and the marginal boosting effect of geopolitical conflicts (Black Sea, Middle East) on oil prices has weakened. On the demand side, the increase in China's imports and OPEC's upward revision of demand expectations provide support, but the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes (the Indian delegation's visit to the US for negotiations) and concerns about the global economic slowdown suppress risk appetite. Technically, WTI and Brent may enter an oscillatory range after rebounding from the low level, but the insufficient inventory reduction and the expectation of future surplus may limit the rebound height [6]. II. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 1. Crude Oil - Futures Prices: On October 13, the SC futures price was 453.70 yuan/barrel, down 8.20 yuan or 1.78% from October 10; the WTI futures price was $59.14/barrel, up $0.90 or 1.55%; the Brent futures price was $63.39/barrel, up $1.30 or 2.09%. - Spot Prices: The OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $65.33/barrel. The Brent spot price decreased by $0.70 to $64.35/barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Oman spot price dropped by $1.35 to $64.25/barrel, a decrease of 2.06%. The Shengli spot price fell by $1.73 to $60.60/barrel, a decline of 2.78%. The Dubai spot price decreased by $1.41 to $63.64/barrel, a decrease of 2.17%. The ESPO spot price dropped by $1.21 to $59.22/barrel, a decrease of 2.00%. The Duri spot price fell by $1.60 to $64.07/barrel, a decline of 2.44%. - Spreads: The SC-Brent spread decreased by $2.53 to $0.22/barrel, a decline of 92.00%. The SC-WTI spread decreased by $2.13 to $4.47/barrel, a decline of 32.27%. The Brent-WTI spread increased by $0.40 to $4.25/barrel, an increase of 10.39%. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread increased by 0.50 yuan to -1.80 yuan/barrel, an increase of 21.74%. - Other Assets: The US dollar index increased by 0.41 to 99.24, an increase of 0.41%. The S&P 500 index increased by 102.21 points to 6,654.72, an increase of 1.56%. The DAX index increased by 146.47 points to 24,387.93, an increase of 0.60%. The RMB exchange rate increased by 0.01 to 7.13, an increase of 0.14%. - Inventory and开工率: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 0.89%. The Cushing inventory decreased by 0.763 million barrels to 22.704 million barrels, a decrease of 3.25%. The US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.0285 million barrels to 406.985 million barrels, an increase of 0.07%. The API inventory increased by 2.78 million barrels to 443.559 million barrels, an increase of 0.63%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.00 percentage points to 92.40%, an increase of 1.09%. The US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 0.129 million barrels per day to 16.297 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.80% [8]. 2. Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: On October 13, the FU futures price was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan or 1.58% from October 10; the LU futures price was 3,232 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan or 1.94%. The NYMEX fuel oil price was 225.12 cents/gallon, up 5.82 cents or 2.65%. - Spot Prices: The prices of IF0380 in Singapore and Rotterdam, MD0 in Singapore, MDO in Rotterdam, MGO in Singapore, 180CST marine fuel in Singapore FOB, 380Cst marine fuel in Singapore FOB, 0.5% low-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore FOB, and high-sulfur 180 in East China remained unchanged. The Russian M100 arrival price decreased by $10 to $439/ton, a decrease of 2.23%. - Paper Prices: The prices of high-sulfur 180 and high-sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - term) remained unchanged. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread remained unchanged at $64.89/ton. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 20 yuan to 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88%. The LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased by 64 yuan to -1,938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42%. The FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased by 44 yuan to -1,897 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%. - Platts and Inventory: The Platts (380CST) price decreased by $28.75 to $382.29/ton, a decrease of 6.99%. The Platts (180CST) price decreased by $35.38 to $382.60/ton, a decrease of 8.46%. The Singapore inventory decreased by 0.892 million tons to 23.669 million tons, a decrease of 3.63% [9]. III. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 1. Supply - On October 13, according to the OPEC monthly report, China's net imports of petroleum products increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 12.46 million barrels per day compared with the previous statistics. - On October 13, sources said that the oil exports of the Caspian Pipeline in September increased by 9% month-on-month to 6.6 million tons. - On October 13, affected by the drone attacks on multiple refineries, Russia's seaborne exports of refined oil in September decreased by 17.1% compared with August to 7.58 million tons. - On October 13, the CEO of Saudi Aramco said that the production cost of oil is $2 per barrel of oil equivalent, and that of natural gas is $1 per barrel of oil equivalent, with a total of $3 per barrel of oil equivalent. - On October 13, the CEO of Saudi Aramco said that the maximum sustainable (crude oil) production capacity is 12 million barrels per day and can be maintained for one year without any additional cost [10][11]. 2. Demand - The OPEC monthly report predicts that the global crude oil demand in 2026 will be 107.87 million barrels per day, and in 2025 will be 106.57 million barrels per day. - The OPEC monthly report predicts that the average daily demand for OPEC+ crude oil in the world in 2026 will be 43.1 million barrels (unchanged from last month). - The OPEC monthly report predicts that the global oil demand in 2025 will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day (previously predicted to be 1.29 million barrels per day), and maintains the forecast of a 1.38 million barrels per day increase in global oil demand in 2026. - On October 13, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, said that driven by the growth of developing countries, the global oil demand is expected to remain strong this year and next year. - The CEO of Saudi Aramco said that the oil demand will increase by about 1.1 - 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.2 - 1.4 million barrels per day next year, and that the oil demand is resilient and the growth potential in the oil field is still huge [12]. 3. Inventory - The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts were 5.401 million barrels, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. - The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts were 13,080 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. - The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were 45,800 tons, decreasing by 31,990 tons from the previous trading day [13]. 4. Market Information - In the short term, the sentiment in the crude oil market remains fragile, but the overseas WTI and Brent crude oils have shown a technical rebound from the low level. Coupled with the partial release of previous negative factors such as tariff disturbances and government shutdowns, the further downward space for oil prices is limited. It is recommended to adopt a low - level oscillatory mindset for the time being. - An Indian official said on Monday that the Indian trade delegation will visit the US this week, and the two sides are working hard to reach an agreement before the autumn deadline. - Ukrainian drones attacked a Crimean oil terminal at night. - The cooling of the Gaza situation and the signs of intensified Sino - US trade disputes by Trump have attracted market attention. International oil prices dropped by 4% in a single day last Friday. At present, the situation in Eastern Europe remains stalemate, and the supply concerns caused by the Iranian nuclear issue still persist, which support the oil market. However, the escalation of trade disputes has increased economic concerns, and the prospect of supply surplus also exerts pressure on the oil market. With the combination of long and short news, the oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term and face downward risks in the medium and long term [14]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread statistics between SC and WTI, the US weekly crude oil production, the number of oil rigs in the US and Canada (Baker Hughes), the number of oil rigs in various regions around the world (Baker Hughes), the US refinery weekly operating rate, the US refinery crude oil processing volume (4 - week moving average), the US weekly net crude oil imports (4 - week moving average), the actual capacity utilization rate of Japanese refineries, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation), China's monthly refined oil production (gasoline, diesel, kerosene), the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves), the US Cushing crude oil inventory, the US strategic crude oil inventory, the fuel oil futures price trend, the Singapore high - low sulfur spread, the international port IFO380 spot price, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread, the cross - regional high - low sulfur spread, and the fuel oil inventory [15][17][19].
原油、燃料油日报：供给过剩预期大幅强化，油价破位下行-20251014
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-14 11:59