聚酯链日报：需求边际转弱叠加库存压力，聚酯市场延续承压运行-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyester market continues to operate under pressure due to the marginal weakening of demand and inventory pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On October 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,504.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of -84.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 0.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the supply side, the PX plant operating rate remains relatively stable, but the expected commissioning of new plants and unplanned maintenance of some Asian factories create a mix of long and short factors, and the potential elasticity of the supply side may break the balance. The PTA industry load has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the short - term stock supply pressure has not been significantly relieved with the co - existence of plant restarts and load reductions, but the delay in the commissioning of new production capacity may ease the expectation of loose supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - On the demand side, although the polyester operating rate is at a high level, the inventory pressure of grey fabrics in the weaving end is transmitted to the polyester link. The lack of sustainability of new orders may restrict the replenishment demand for polyester raw materials. The trading volume of the Textile City has declined from the previous high, and the marginal weakening of the resilience of overseas orders and the seasonal weakening of domestic demand pose a test to the sustainability of the positive feedback in the industrial chain, and the support from the demand side may gradually decline [2]. - On the inventory side, the absolute value of PTA factory inventory is still in the low range in recent years, but the visible inventory has accumulated continuously in the past two weeks, and the weakening basis reflects insufficient spot drive. In the environment of compressed processing fees, the inventory contradiction in the industrial chain is transferred to the middle reaches. Attention should be paid to the impact of the manifestation of hidden inventory on the circulating supply, and the turning point of the inventory structure may be a signal of the price's phased inflection point [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On October 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,200.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,365.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 165.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The MA15 trading volume of the Textile City in the demand side fluctuated narrowly in the range of 857 - 862 million meters, not continuing the upward trend in the peak season, indicating insufficient downstream replenishment momentum. The inventory structure has prominent contradictions: the inventory of polyester staple fiber is 7.58 days, significantly higher than the 5 - year average of 4.96 days, becoming the main source of inventory accumulation pressure. The polyester filament varieties show obvious differentiation, with the POY inventory of 13.6 days significantly lower than the average of 20.4 days, while the FDY/DTY is slightly higher than the historical average. It is expected that the industrial chain will continue to operate weakly. The decline of crude - oil - related varieties on the cost side and the high inventory of polyester staple fiber may drive polyester factories to increase production cut - back efforts to balance supply and demand [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: On October 13, 2025, the PX futures main - contract price was 6,458 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.71% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 8,467 to 109,201 lots, an increase of 8.41%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 12,852 to 49,851 lots, a decrease of 20.50%. The South Korea FOB price of PX spot was 767 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars or 0.90% from October 10. The PX basis was - 120 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 42.86% from October 10 [5]. - PTA: On October 13, 2025, the PTA futures main - contract price was 4,510 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.53% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 9,456 to 603,489 lots, an increase of 1.59%, and the main - contract open interest increased by 37,917 to 1,096,302 lots, an increase of 3.58%. The PTA 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 3.85% from October 10 [5]. - Short - fiber: On October 13, 2025, the short - fiber futures main - contract price was 6,166 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan or 0.55% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 43,754 to 119,500 lots, a decrease of 26.80%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 28,801 to 47,106 lots, a decrease of 37.94%. The PF 1 - 5 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 85.71% from October 10 [5]. - Other products: The US crude oil main - contract price was 59.14 US dollars/barrel on October 13, up 0.9 US dollars or 1.55% from October 10. The ethylene glycol price was 4,060 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 3.10% from October 10 [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On October 13, Trump's list of candidates for the Fed chair has been narrowed to five. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report at 8:30 am on October 24 (8:30 pm Beijing time). Trump said that if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot be resolved, the US may supply "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine [7]. - On October 10, the central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo will start building gold reserves when the gold price soars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts: Williams supports further interest - rate cuts, while Barr believes that interest - rate cuts should be cautious, and Kashkari basically agrees with Barr [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 11, the total trading volume of the Textile City was 9.04 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.75 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 2.31 million meters [8].