财富管理月报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [29] - European stocks - Equal - weight [30] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [31] - Hong Kong stocks - Equal - weight [32] - Japanese stocks - Overweight [35] - Indian stocks - Underweight [34] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, global financial markets were influenced by central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical factors. The Fed's rate cut, economic data in the US and China, and various market - specific events all had an impact on different asset classes [23][9][19] - Stock markets generally rose in September, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the way. Bond markets had mixed performances, and currency and commodity markets also showed distinct trends [28][48][58] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance in September 3.1.1 Stock Markets - Most major global stock indices rose in September. The Hang Seng Tech Index led with a 13.95% monthly increase, and A - share market style was highly differentiated [27][28] 3.1.2 Bond Markets - Most major bond indices had positive returns in September. For example, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index gained 0.85% in September [48] 3.1.3 Commodity Markets - Gold prices rose nearly 12% in September, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and copper prices increased by 5.08% [62] 3.1.4 Currency Markets - The US dollar index showed a low - level oscillating pattern, the yen was slightly weak, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was stable [58] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Macroeconomic Review - ADP private employment decreased by 32,000 in September, against an expected increase of 51,000. The market increased bets on Fed rate cuts [9] - In August, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, driven by car and housing prices [10] - Retail sales rose 0.6% month - on - month in August, and real retail sales increased 2.1% year - on - year [14] - The September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, still in the expansion range but showing signs of softening demand [16] 3.2.2 Chinese Macroeconomic Review - In August, social consumption was stable, exports and imports increased, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, and financial data was supported by various factors [19] - CPI turned negative again, PPI improved slightly but remained low, and PMI showed mixed signals [21] 3.2.3 Global Central Bank Policies in September - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, and the market expected two more cuts this year [23] - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points on September 17 [23] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark rate at 0.5% on September 19 and announced an ETF and J - REIT减持 plan [23] 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Stock Markets - US stocks: The Fed's rate cut, economic resilience, and AI concept support the overweight rating, despite concerns about AI over - valuation [29] - European stocks: Mixed economic data, political instability, and the Fed's rate cut lead to an equal - weight rating [30] - Chinese A - shares: A funds - driven bull market, high - valuation in tech sectors, and potential policy risks result in an equal - weight rating [31] - Hong Kong stocks: AI and tech sectors are the mainstay, but narrow market breadth and weak fundamentals pose risks, with southbound funds being important [32] - Japanese stocks: The impact of the ETF减持 plan is limited, economic fundamentals are improving, and the market has digested the expected rate hike [35] - Indian stocks: Deteriorating US - India relations, high valuation, and foreign capital outflows lead to an underweight rating [34] 3.3.2 Bond Markets - US bonds: Short - term yields may decline further in October due to weak employment data [54] - Japanese bonds: The 10 - year yield may rise if the Bank of Japan hikes rates in October [54] - Chinese bonds: A rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut are expected in Q4, and bond yields may peak and fall [54] 3.3.3 Commodity Markets - Gold: After a sharp rise in September, it may enter a consolidation period, but long - term allocation logic remains [62] - Oil: Supply is expected to exceed demand in Q4, and the price may decline [62] - Copper: Supply disruptions and increased long - term demand may drive prices higher [62] 3.3.4 Currency Markets - US dollar: Expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [58] - Yen: May strengthen if the Bank of Japan hikes rates in October [58] - RMB: Stable against the US dollar and weak against other currencies to support exports [58] 3.4 Selected Funds This Month - The report selects funds based on asset classes and geographical locations, using criteria such as historical performance, expense ratio, and risk for different types of funds [64][65]