库存压力与伊朗扰动并存，甲醇宽幅震荡

Group 1: Report Core View - Methanol futures prices have fluctuated significantly recently, mainly due to intensified trading behavior on the futures market under the coexistence of inventory pressure, olefin drag, and Iranian disruptions. The current near - term fundamentals of methanol face significant pressure, but there are still expectations of overseas shutdowns in winter in the long - term. Considering short - term news, the long - short game on the futures market is intense, and investors are advised to be cautious and view it as a wide - range oscillation [3] Group 2: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Situation - As of October 9, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1543200 tons, an increase of 51000 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in the East China region increased by 47800 tons, and that in the South China region increased by 3200 tons. The port inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, and the domestic production facilities continue to operate at a relatively high rate, so short - term supply pressure still exists [3] Downstream Market - The prices of core downstream olefins have continued to decline due to Sino - US disturbances and weak oil prices, which is the main factor restricting methanol prices [3] International Situation - There are still disruptions from Iran. The US previously imposed sanctions on some Iranian vessels, including some methanol transport vessels. But early today, Trump's stance towards Iran changed, suggesting the possibility of lifting sanctions, which has short - term impacts on the futures market and significantly increases the volatility of methanol [3]