房地产行业报告（2025.10.5-2025.10.11）：“金九”延续企稳，政策依赖度仍高

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in the first nine months of 2025 was CNY 26,065.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. However, the decline has narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first eight months. In September alone, sales increased by 11.9% month-on-month. The market is stabilizing, but high inventory levels in key cities remain a concern, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities where sales continue to lag [4][5] - The report highlights that the policy toolbox is continuously being enriched, but no nationwide strong stimulus policies have been introduced yet. The market is looking forward to special policies for October [4] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 1.1 New Housing Transactions and Inventory - In the last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 121.78 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 68,646.7 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 154.64 million square meters, down 8% year-on-year and 2.6% month-on-month [5][13] - The average transaction area for first-tier cities was 46.79 million square meters, up 0.8% year-on-year but down 5.7% month-on-month. For second-tier cities, it was 74.99 million square meters, up 0.5% year-on-year and down 0.2% month-on-month. Third-tier cities saw an average transaction area of 32.86 million square meters, down 30.2% year-on-year and down 3.3% month-on-month [5][13] 1.2 Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the last week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 20 cities was 134.71 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 86,440.6 million square meters for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 165.98 million square meters, up 7% year-on-year but down 10.2% month-on-month [6][19] - As of September 29, 2025, the national second-hand housing listing index was 7.51, down 29.1% month-on-month, and the listing price index was 150.87, down 0.15% month-on-month [23] 1.3 Land Market Transactions - In the last week, 61 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 39 plots sold. The average transaction price for residential land was CNY 5,466 per square meter, with a premium rate of 2.58%, down 0.28 percentage points month-on-month [28][29] 2. Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index fell by 0.82%, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51%, indicating that the real estate index underperformed the CSI 300 by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index rose by 0.65% [33][34]