国投期货能源日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading floor operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish inclination with low trading floor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish bias and limited operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand persists. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of the Sino - US talks at the APAC meeting at the end of the month on risk sentiment [2] - The absolute price of fuel oil is suppressed by the bearish factors of crude oil and is expected to follow a weak and volatile trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively stable short - term supply - demand structure, but its medium - term outlook is under pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [2] - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. The cracking spread rebounds as asphalt follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited drop. There is a slight inventory build - up expected at the end of 2025, and the far - month contracts are more pressured [3] - The basis of liquefied petroleum gas has been repaired. With OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of associated gas overseas intensifies. The actual demand in the combustion end has not significantly increased during the traditional peak season, and there is a lack of positive support [3] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian session, international oil prices fell again, with the SC11 contract dropping 0.64% intraday. Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 4.3%, and the inventory build - up speed has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - New risk - aversion sentiments are triggered by the US government shutdown and the potential resurgence of the Sino - US trade war. Supply may be tightened periodically due to attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. However, the Gaza cease - fire agreement is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is suppressed by the bearish factors of crude oil and is expected to be weak and volatile [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively stable short - term supply - demand structure because of damaged Russian refinery capacity and tightened export expectations. But its medium - term outlook is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase and potential conflict alleviation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to overseas supply surplus and loose domestic export quotas [2] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. The cracking spread rebounds as asphalt follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited drop [3] - There is a slight inventory build - up expected at the end of 2025. The support from the asphalt fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4, and the far - month contracts are more pressured [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The basis has been repaired as the futures are relatively stronger than the spot. US propane exports have decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume is at a low level [3] - Refinery inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have declined. With OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of associated gas overseas intensifies [3] - The actual demand in the combustion end has not significantly increased during the traditional peak season, and there is a lack of positive support [3]