瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting continued downward pressure on US corn prices [3] - In the domestic market, the new corn yield in the Northeast region is ideal, and farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a concentrated supply of wet corn. Although market trading activity has slightly improved, new corn has high moisture content and is difficult to store, so traders are cautious about building inventories, and the purchase price continues to be weak [3] - In the North China and Huanghuai regions, continuous cloudy weather has led to an increase in the phenomenon of corn piling up, returning to moisture and mildew, resulting in a significant decline in corn quality and a price decline. Although the willingness of some growers to sell has decreased, the overall selling enthusiasm is still high, while demand is relatively cautious, and the purchase price is also weak [3] - As the new - season corn market volume gradually increases, the supply pressure of raw material corn increases, the cost support of corn starch declines, and the downstream demand for corn starch decreases, so the starch market maintains a bearish outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2093 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 91 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 479,322 lots, down 72,733 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 32,877 lots, up 6,034 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 36,709 lots, unchanged [2] - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2385 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 16 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 112,293 lots, down 16,434 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 39,912 lots, down 2,972 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 12,938 lots, down 44 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2] Foreign Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 410.5 cents/bushel, down 3 cents; the total trading volume is 1,543,065 lots, up 13,269 lots; the non - commercial net long position is - 51,186 lots, down 15,017 lots [2] Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2278.04 yuan/ton, down 16.27 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1993.17 yuan/ton, down 2.55 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 185.04 yuan/ton, down 17.27 yuan [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 109 yuan/ton [2] - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2448.56 yuan/ton, up 0.12 yuan; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 268 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 153 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted production in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 425.26 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 32 million tons respectively. The predicted sown areas are 35.89 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares, and 1.5 million hectares respectively [2] - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 33.2 tons, down 11.8 tons; the inventory at northern ports is 115 tons, up 25 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 203.6 tons, down 8.2 tons [2] Industry Situation - Corn: The monthly import volume is 4 tons, down 2 tons; the monthly feed production is 2927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; the average number of days of feed corn inventory in the sample is 24.49 days, down 0.72 days; the weekly deep - processing corn consumption is 119.27 tons, up 3.17 tons [2] - Corn starch: The monthly export volume is 14,800 tons, down 1,140 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 119.1 tons, up 4.3 tons; the processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 57 yuan/ton, 69 yuan/ton, and 56 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +13 yuan/ton, - 14 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [2] - Operating rates: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 54.96%, up 3.49 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.81%, up 2.36 percentage points [2] Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 10.14%, down 0.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.41%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 13.99%, up 2.02 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of October 9, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 45%, compared with 40% a week ago and 41% in the same period last year [2]