Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the wealth - management scale decreased seasonally. As of the end of September 2025, the total wealth - management scale was 31.9 trillion yuan, up 2.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year but down 1.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month. The scale increase in Q3 2025 was higher than that in the same period from 2022 - 2024 [3][7]. - The average monthly annualized return of pure fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies decreased slightly in September. The average performance comparison benchmark of newly - issued RMB fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies has been declining. The upper and lower limits of the average performance comparison benchmark of newly - issued RMB fixed - income wealth - management products in September 2025 were 2.70% and 2.20% respectively [3]. - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks has been declining rapidly in the past two years. It is expected that the cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks in Q4 2025 will drop below 1.65%, and the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year - by - year in the next five years, supporting the downward oscillation of bond yields [3][18]. - There may be a wave of market conditions in the bond market in Q4. The 10Y government bonds have good allocation value for bank self - operation. It is recommended that commercial bank self - operation increase the allocation of government bonds. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to around 1.65% by the end of the year [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seasonal Decline in September's Wealth - Management Scale - As of the end of September 2025, the total wealth - management scale was 31.9 trillion yuan, up 2.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and down 1.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month. The scale increased by 0.17 trillion yuan in January, 0.13 trillion yuan in February, decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan in March, increased by 2.20 trillion yuan in April, increased by 0.19 trillion yuan in May, decreased by 0.86 trillion yuan in June, increased by 2.0 trillion yuan in July, increased by 0.25 trillion yuan in August, and decreased by 1.0 trillion yuan in September. The wealth - management scale is at a historical high, and it may reach 33 trillion yuan in October [6]. - The wealth - management scale decreased by 1.0 trillion yuan in September 2025, close to the seasonal pattern (the average decrease in September from 2021 - 2024 was 0.82 trillion yuan). Despite the stock market's sharp rise in Q3 2025, the total increase in the wealth - management scale in Q3 was 1.25 trillion yuan, higher than that in the same period from 2022 - 2024 [3][7]. 2. Yield of Fixed - Income Wealth - Management Products in September 2025 - The average performance comparison benchmark of newly - issued RMB fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies has been oscillating downward since early 2022. In September 2025, the upper and lower limits of the average performance comparison benchmark were 2.70% and 2.20% respectively. It is expected that the lower limit may slowly drop to around 2.0% [11]. - The yield of cash - management wealth - management products oscillated in September. As of October 12, 2025, the average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth - management products of wealth - management companies was 1.30%, while that of money market funds was 1.12%. The yield of money - related products may further decline slightly [12]. - Although the bond market adjusted in September, the average monthly annualized return of pure fixed - income wealth - management products of wealth - management companies was 1.97%, showing that the products were less affected by the bond market adjustment [16]. 3. Investment Suggestion: Declining Bank Liability Costs Support the Bond Market - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks has been declining rapidly in the past two years. The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks in Q2 2025 was 1.72%, down 8BP quarter - on - quarter and 45BP from the high point in Q4 2023. It is expected to drop below 1.65% in Q4 2025. In the next five years, the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year - by - year, supporting the downward oscillation of bond yields [18]. - China has entered a low - interest - rate era. It is recommended to lower the return expectation of bond investment. Commercial bank self - operation, as the largest bond allocator, also needs to lower the return expectation. In the long run, the bond investment ratio may increase [20]. - It is recommended that commercial bank self - operation increase the allocation of 10Y government bonds during the bond market adjustment. The Fed may cut interest rates by 25BP in October, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts in the next six months. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to around 1.65% by the end of the year [21].
9月理财规模季节性下降：理财规模跟踪月报（2025年9月）-20251014
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-10-14 12:50