流动性和机构行为周度观察：10月资金面预计整体宽松-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 9 - 11, 2025, the central bank significantly net - withdrew funds through short - term reverse repurchases, and the money market generally loosened. The net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market slightly increased. - Looking ahead to the money market trend in October, it is expected to be seasonally loose at the beginning of the quarter. Although it is expected to be generally loose overall, there will be certain volatility pressure at the end of the month due to the overlap of tax payment and cross - month effects [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - Reverse Repurchase Operations: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 15263 billion yuan. To cope with the pressure of concentrated maturity of funds, the central bank carried out a 3 - month (3M) outright reverse repurchase operation of 11000 billion yuan on October 9, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan this month. From October 13 - 17, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 10210 billion yuan and treasury cash deposits worth 1500 billion yuan will mature [7]. - Money Market Conditions: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 3.0 and 10.5 basis points respectively compared with September 29 - 30; the average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 7.1 and 26.3 basis points respectively. The money market generally loosened. It is expected to be generally loose in October, but with certain volatility pressure at the end of the month [8]. - Government Bond Net Payment: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 7 billion yuan, about 2114 billion yuan less than that from September 29 - 30. From October 13 - 19, the net payment scale of government bonds is expected to be 852 billion yuan [9]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Maturity Yields: As of October 11, 2025, the 1 - month (1M) and 1 - year (1Y) inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity yields decreased by 0.3 and 1.5 basis points respectively compared with September 30, while the 3 - month (3M) yield increased by 4.1 basis points [10]. - Net Financing Amount: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the net financing amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 823 billion yuan, turning positive from - 1316 billion yuan from September 29 - 30. The maturity repayment amount from October 13 - 19 is expected to be 5049 billion yuan, and the maturity amount in October is expected to be 1.84 trillion yuan, significantly lower than that in September [10]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio: From October 9 - 11, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.61%, slightly higher than the average of 107.57% from September 29 - 30 [11]. - Duration of Pure Bond Funds: On October 10, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.67 years week - on - week, reaching the 76.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds increased by 0.18 years week - on - week, reaching the 28.1% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [11].