海外宏观周报：美国政府停摆延续，失业人数小幅上升-20251014

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown continues, leading to a slight increase in unemployment claims, with initial claims rising from 224,000 to 235,000 as of the week ending October 4[2] - The number of individuals receiving ongoing unemployment benefits increased from 1.919 million to 1.927 million[2] - Historical context shows that previous shutdowns, like in October 2013, resulted in a significant rise in unemployment claims, indicating potential future increases if the shutdown persists[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones dropping 878.82 points (1.9%) to close at 45,479.60 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling by 2.71% and 3.56%, respectively[9] - High valuation tech stocks led the market downturn, with Nvidia and AMD dropping by 5% and nearly 8%, respectively[9] - Despite current high valuations, tech stocks are driven by strong fundamentals, suggesting potential for future growth once policy uncertainties are resolved[3] Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index slightly decreased from 55.1 in September to 55 in October[10] - One-year inflation expectations fell from 4.7% to 4.6%, while five-year expectations remained stable at 3.7%[10] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Ongoing trade tensions could lead to decreased market risk appetite, putting pressure on tech stock valuations[4] - If corporate earnings fall short of expectations or major companies report disappointing results, the market's high valuation logic may be re-evaluated, triggering potential corrections[23]