两粕、油脂下挫

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector is generally weak. Two types of meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils have declined. Sugar has tumbled, and the downward space may continue to expand. Each variety has different influencing factors and future trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Both the main 2601 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have declined significantly, with rapeseed meal leading the decline. The supply is abundant, and the demand has turned weak. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position is recommended [2]. - In September 2025, the import of soybeans was 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The soybean inventory has increased, and the meal inventory may continue to rise. The aquaculture of rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the downstream pick - up has basically stagnated [2]. - The support and resistance levels of the soybean meal 2601 contract are 2883 and 2920 respectively, and those of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract are 2330 and 2374 respectively [2]. Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to decline in a volatile manner, pressured by technical selling. Technically, it is weak, and short - term trading is recommended [3][6]. - The October MPOB palm oil supply - demand report is bearish. In late September, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 7.2% to 2.36 million tons, higher than expected. In early October, the production increased by 6.59% month - on - month [3]. - The support and resistance levels of the palm oil 2601 contract are 9280 and 9400 respectively [6]. Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has rebounded technically, but the downward trend has not been reversed. The short position should be held [7]. - The live pig price has continued to fall under the bearish fundamental pressure. After falling to a low level, some short - sellers have covered their positions. The supply - demand situation remains bearish, and the consumption has declined after the festival [7]. - The support and resistance levels of the live pig 2511 contract are 11200 and 11570 respectively [7]. Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has fluctuated at a low level, pressured by the new corn harvest. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position is recommended [9]. - The new corn harvest is gradually realized, and the spot price has fallen across the board. The futures price has been pressured downwards, but there has been a large amount of short - covering at the low level [9]. - The support and resistance levels of the corn 2511 contract are 2076 and 2100 respectively [9]. Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs has rebounded at a low level, boosted by short - covering. However, the supply is still loose, and the rebound space may be limited. Profitable short positions should be reduced, and short - selling can be considered after the rebound meets resistance [11]. - The egg price has rebounded for two consecutive days due to short - sellers' profit - taking. The terminal replenishment has improved slightly, but the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high [11]. - The support and resistance levels of the egg 2511 contract are 2820 and 2875 respectively [11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has continued to decline in a volatile manner, pressured by sufficient supply. Short - term trading is recommended [13]. - In September 2025, the import of soybeans was 12.87 million tons, hitting a record high. The domestic oil mill crushing volume has remained high, and the soybean oil inventory has been at a high level. There may be phased inventory accumulation after the festival [13]. - The support and resistance levels of the soybean oil 2601 contract are 8200 and 8300 respectively [13]. Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the rebound has been blocked. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. - The new cotton in the Xinjiang main production area has entered the peak harvest period, the supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the commercial inventory has increased slightly [15]. - The support and resistance levels of the cotton 2601 contract are 13200 and 13370 respectively [15]. Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has tumbled, dragged down by the sharp decline in the external market. A light - short position is recommended [17]. - The overseas sugar production is high, and the supply surplus is obvious. The domestic sugar consumption has entered the off - season, and there are multiple sugar sources in the market [17]. - The support and resistance levels of the sugar 2601 contract are 5382 and 5450 respectively [17]. Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has fluctuated narrowly at a high level, showing a strong trend. A light - long position is recommended [19]. - The apple picking in Shaanxi has been受阻, and the high - quality apple price is stable. The late - maturing Fuji apples in Shandong have not been fully listed, and some merchants have gone to Liaoning to purchase [19]. - The support and resistance levels of the apple 2601 contract are 8650 and 8720 respectively [19]. Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates has continued to oscillate narrowly, and the listing rhythm of new dates affects the market. A light - long position is recommended [22]. - The new dates in the Xinjiang main production area are about to be harvested, and the inventory of old dates is slowly decreasing but still much higher than last year [22]. - The support and resistance levels of the red date 2601 contract are 10990 and 11160 respectively [22].