国投期货农产品日报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product [2][3][4] - The report suggests that while some products face supply and demand challenges, others show potential for price increases or are in a state of weak oscillation. Investors are advised to pay attention to policy changes, international trade relations, and seasonal factors [6][7][8] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a consolidation state after a rebound. The recent auction had a 66.3%成交 rate with an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. Concerns about US soybean export demand may pressure US soybean prices [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of domestic soybean meal futures decreased by 1.16% today. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 812 million tons, showing an increase. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations worsen. US soybean sales are slow, and relevant policies are delayed. It is advisable to wait and observe [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil followed the general decline of most commodities today. However, from the perspective of the oil - meal ratio, oils are still stronger than meals. The US soybean price is expected to be pressured by weak demand. The Malaysian palm oil market has weak demand and inventory pressure, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. It is recommended to buy oils at low prices after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures declined today and were among the top decliners in the oil - seed sector. The macro - economic sentiment has a greater impact than the fundamentals. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply is abundant, and rapeseed is not cost - effective in the demand side. It is recommended to use rapeseed as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies. Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the domestic rapeseed market will likely oscillate weakly [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are oscillating widely at the bottom. The new corn harvest in the northeast may lead to a price decline, but the winter wheat price increase may have an impact. The corn price is currently weak at the bottom, and a policy - based bottom is approaching [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market rebounded with increased positions. The decline of the spot price has slowed down, and some areas have seen a price rebound. Although the current price is at the bottom historically, there are no obvious bullish factors in the fundamentals. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which will support the futures contracts of the second half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has mixed trends, with some areas rising and others falling. The futures market shows a rebound in the near - term contracts and a decline in the far - term contracts. The mid - term egg price bottom has not been determined, and the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. It is recommended to hold a short position in the near - term contracts and a long position in the far - term contracts [9]